{"id":44771,"date":"2024-12-29T22:24:05","date_gmt":"2024-12-29T21:24:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/maritimefinance.eu\/?p=44771"},"modified":"2025-02-03T12:16:25","modified_gmt":"2025-02-03T11:16:25","slug":"monthly-dec-2024-da","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/maritimefinance.eu\/da\/monthly-dec-2024-da\/","title":{"rendered":"Monthly Dec. 2024 – DA"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Positivitet omkring tankmarkedet frem mod 2025<\/h4>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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\u00d8get eftersp\u00f8rgsel efter r\u00e5olie kan give et l\u00f8ft i det kommende \u00e5r.<\/h4><\/div><\/div><\/div>

I begyndelsen af december var den gennemsnitlige indtjening for r\u00e5olietankere omkring 36.000 dollar per dag. Suezmax- og Aframax-segmenterne har vist sig at v\u00e6re de mest robuste. S\u00e6sonm\u00e6ssige forbedringer, som normalt styrker fjerde kvartal, har endnu ikke haft fuld effekt. Alligevel estimerer skibsm\u00e6glerhuset Fearnleys, at der kan komme en potentiel rateforh\u00f8jelse i f\u00f8rste kvartal, drevet af s\u00e6sonm\u00e6ssige skift \u2013 hvilket giver et mere optimistisk outlook for de kommende m\u00e5neder.<\/span><\/p>

OPEC+ har besluttet at forl\u00e6nge sine produktionskutt frem til marts 2025, hvilket afspejler en forsigtig tilgang til at balancere markedet. Det forventes, at en gradvis oph\u00e6velse af disse kutt i marts vil have en positiv effekt p\u00e5 tankermarkedet.<\/p>

P\u00e5 trods af, at man ikke har n\u00e5et de h\u00f8jder, der blev registreret i samme periode sidste \u00e5r (fjerde kvartal), har 2024 v\u00e6ret et positivt \u00e5r for tanksektoren samlet set, drevet af st\u00e6rk v\u00e6kst i kinesisk import. I november steg kinesisk import af r\u00e5olie via s\u00f8vejen med 3 % i forhold til m\u00e5neden f\u00f8r, til ansl\u00e5et 9,9 millioner t\u00f8nder per dag. Dette svarer til en stigning p\u00e5 8 % sammenlignet med samme periode \u00e5ret f\u00f8r, if\u00f8lge Clarksons.<\/p>

Kinesisk eksportv\u00e6kst afg\u00f8rende for et lovende 2025<\/span><\/p>

Lavere priser p\u00e5 r\u00e5olie fra Mellem\u00f8sten har opmuntret til opbygning af lagerbeholdninger, hvilket har st\u00f8ttet denne v\u00e6kst. Derudover steg kinesisk eksport af raffinerede produkter med 30 % fra m\u00e5ned til m\u00e5ned, til 0,9 millioner t\u00f8nder per dag, hvor is\u00e6r benzineksporten steg, da raffinaderierne maksimerede profitten forud for \u00e6ndringerne i eksportskattereglerne, som tr\u00e5dte i kraft i december.<\/p>

Ser man fremad, viser r\u00e5olietankermarkedet lovende udsigter for 2025. Eftersp\u00f8rgslen efter r\u00e5olie forventes at vokse med 2,3 %, mens fl\u00e5dev\u00e6ksten begr\u00e6nses til kun 1,2 %, if\u00f8lge Clarksons. Denne gunstige balance mellem udbud og eftersp\u00f8rgsel kan skabe grundlag for st\u00e6rkere indtjening og et velafbalanceret marked, som giver et positivt fundament for det kommende \u00e5r.<\/p>

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Source:\u00a0Clarksons research<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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EU og USA strammer sanktionsreglerne mod russisk eksport<\/h4>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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52 nye fart\u00f8jer p\u00e5 sortlisten<\/h4>

Den seneste m\u00e5ned har der v\u00e6ret en markant stigning i sanktioner rettet mod russisk olie og maritim aktivitet, da vestlige regeringer intensiverer det \u00f8konomiske pres p\u00e5 Rusland som f\u00f8lge af krigen i Ukraine. If\u00f8lge Tradewinds har EU sat 52 nye skibe p\u00e5 sin sortliste, hvilket bringer det samlede antal russisk-tilknyttede fart\u00f8jer sanktioneret af EU op p\u00e5 79. Disse skibe \u2013 som transporterer olie, v\u00e5ben og korn \u2013 er en del af EU\u2019s strategi for at forstyrre Ruslands “skygge-marked”, som bidrager til at omg\u00e5 de eksisterende sanktioner.<\/p>

De nyligt sanktionerede skibe inkluderer 42 ra\u030aolie- og produkttankere, 7 LNG-fragtfart\u00f8jer og 3 lastskibe af disse skibe er allerede blevet sanktioneret af USA og Storbritannien. EU\u2019s tiltag retter sig ogsa\u030a mod kinesiske selskaber, der leverer dronedele til Rusland, som en del af en bredere ha\u030andh\u00e6velsesstrategi.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>

USA indf\u00f8rer strengere sanktioner \u2013 usikkerhed om deres varighed<\/strong><\/p>

Samtidig forbereder USA endnu strengere sanktioner mod russisk olieeksport. If\u00f8lge Bloomberg vil disse sanktioner sandsynligvis v\u00e6re rettet mod fl\u00e5der, der transporterer russisk olie. Selvom detaljerne endnu ikke er bekr\u00e6ftet, har tiltagene til form\u00e5l at \u00f8ge det \u00f8konomiske pres p\u00e5 Moskva.<\/p>

For tankermarkedet kan disse sanktioner v\u00e6re positivt. En reduktion i russisk olieeksport kan f\u00f8re til \u00f8get eftersp\u00f8rgsel efter tankskibe, is\u00e6r hvis olie fra regioner som OPEC eller Atlanterhavsbassinet skal d\u00e6kke hullet. Denne \u00e6ndring kan f\u00f8re til h\u00f8jere fragtrater og \u00f8get markedsaktivitet, hvilket vil v\u00e6re fordelagtigt for tankskibsoperat\u00f8rer, efterha\u030anden som de globale shippingdynamikker justeres.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>

Source: tradewindsnews<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Positive nyheder for gr\u00f8n ammoniak<\/h4>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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St\u00e6rk v\u00e6kst i VLGC-markedet og IMO-godkendelse af ammoniak som skibsbr\u00e6ndstof<\/h4>

VLGC-markedet (Very Large Gas Carriers) oplevede en markant v\u00e6kst i december, med fragtpriser, der steg betydeligt. Denne stigning skyldes en reduceret tilg\u00e6ngelighed af skibe og en stigende pr\u00e6ference blandt befragtere for st\u00f8rre fart\u00f8jer, hvilket signalerer robuste eftersp\u00f8rgselsdynamikker i sektoren.<\/p>

Samtidig tager industrien store skridt mod dekarbonisering. IMO (International Maritime Organization) har for nylig godkendt retningslinjer, der muligg\u00f8r brugen af ammoniak som br\u00e6ndstof for skibe, i overensstemmelse med organisationens ma\u030al om netto-nul-udslip inden 2050. Ammoniak tilbyder et kulstoffrit alternativ, na\u030ar det produceres fra gr\u00f8nne brintkilder. De nye retningslinjer, som tr\u00e6der i kraft i juli 2025, inkluderer sikkerhedsforanstaltninger og regulatoriske \u00e6ndringer for at lette implementeringen. EMF, med en fla\u030ade pa\u030a tre Very Large Ammonia Carriers (VLACs), som leveres i 2027, er godt positioneret til at drage fordel af denne udvikling.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>

Nyt ambiti\u00f8st produktionsprojekt i Argentina<\/strong><\/p>

Som en langsigtet positiv faktor styrker Argentina sin rolle i den gr\u00f8nne energiomstilling. RP Global og GIZ udvikler et banebrydende projekt i landet, med m\u00e5let om at producere 1,7 millioner ton gr\u00f8n ammoniak \u00e5rligt, drevet af 4,2 GW vindkraft. Projektet vil prim\u00e6rt betjene det europ\u00e6iske marked og skabe betydelig eftersp\u00f8rgsel efter specialiserede ammoniakfart\u00f8jer som VLACs. Initiativet st\u00f8tter ikke kun Europas dekarbonisering, men fremh\u00e6ver ogs\u00e5 Argentinas potentiale som en ledende eksport\u00f8r af vedvarende energi.<\/p>

Fremtidige muligheder for LPG- og ammoniakmarkedet<\/strong><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div>

LPG-markedet kan st\u00e5 overfor noget svagere forhold tidligt i 2025 p\u00e5 grund af fl\u00e5dev\u00e6kst. If\u00f8lge Clarksons forventes eftersp\u00f8rgslen dog at tage til senere p\u00e5 \u00e5ret. Inden 2026 er v\u00e6ksten i ton-mile for LPG og ammoniak ansl\u00e5et til 8,5 %, drevet af \u00f8get amerikansk eksportkapacitet og f\u00e6rre forstyrrelser i R\u00f8dehavet. Disse tendenser peger mod en lovende fremtid for b\u00e5de LPG- og ammoniakfragt.<\/p><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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2024: Et st\u00e6rkt \u00e5r for bilfragtmarkedet<\/h4>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Kina indtager rollen som verdens st\u00f8rste eksport\u00f8r: Trenden forventes at forts\u00e6tte<\/h4>

PCTC-markedet (Pure Car and Truck Carrier) har haft endnu et st\u00e6rkt \u00e5r i 2024, pr\u00e6get af h\u00f8j indtjening, robuste fragtpriser og h\u00f8j charteraktivitet. Volumenerne for bilfragt til s\u00f8s har forblevet solide gennem \u00e5ret, efter den st\u00e6rke genopretning efter COVID.<\/p>

Kina har nu overhalet Japan som den st\u00f8rste eksport\u00f8r af biler til s\u00f8s, med en v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 26 % i eksporten i \u00e5r. I november eksporterede Kina i alt 548.600 biler, hvilket svarer til en v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 4,7 % sammenlignet med \u00e5ret f\u00f8r. Kinas eksport er oppe med 23 % i \u00e5r, hvilket viser, at eftersp\u00f8rgslen efter kinesiske k\u00f8ret\u00f8jer stadig er st\u00e6rk.<\/p>

Langdistancefragt fra Kina har v\u00e6ret en vigtig drivkraft for eftersp\u00f8rgslen p\u00e5 shipping, sammen med \u00e6ndringer i handelsruter. Skibe der omrutes v\u00e6k fra R\u00f8dehavet har \u00f8get eftersp\u00f8rgslen efter \u201dtonnemile\u201d med omkring 7 %, da skibene tager l\u00e6ngere ruter rundt om Afrika. Disse faktorer har bidraget til at opretholde bilfragtmarkedet i 2024.<\/p><\/div>

Toldsatser giver bekymring \u2013 men forventes ikke at h\u00e6mme v\u00e6ksten i 2025<\/strong><\/p>

Selvom der er nogle udfordringer i horisonten, forventes de ikke at skabe betydelige forstyrrelser p\u00e5 markedet. EU har indf\u00f8rt toldsatser p\u00e5 kinesiske elektriske k\u00f8ret\u00f8jer (EV), som udg\u00f8r omkring 12 % af Kinas bileksport. Selvom dette kan d\u00e6mpe v\u00e6ksten i EV-segmentet, forventes kinesiske EV\u2019er at bevare deres konkurrenceevne p\u00e5 grund af deres st\u00e6rke prisfordel. I USA kan potentielle \u00e6ndringer i handelspolitikken f\u00f8re til nye toldsatser, men omfanget af deres indvirkning er stadig usikkert.<\/p>

Fremtiden ser positiv ud. V\u00e6ksten i kinesisk eksport og de udviklende handelsm\u00f8nstre forts\u00e6tter med at st\u00f8tte den langsigtede eftersp\u00f8rgsel efter bilfragtfart\u00f8jer. Selvom risici som normalisering af eftersp\u00f8rgslen, handelstold og geopolitiske forstyrrelser fortsat er til stede, har 2024 v\u00e6ret endnu et bem\u00e6rkelsesv\u00e6rdigt \u00e5r for PCTC-segmentet og l\u00e6gger et solidt grundlag for stabil pr\u00e6station i de kommende \u00e5r.<\/p><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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Positivitet omkring tankmarkedet frem mod 2025 \u00d8get eftersp\u00f8rgsel efter r\u00e5olie kan give et l\u00f8ft i det kommende \u00e5r. I begyndelsen af december var den gennemsnitlige indtjening for r\u00e5olietankere omkring 36.000 dollar per dag. Suezmax- og Aframax-segmenterne har vist sig at v\u00e6re de mest robuste. S\u00e6sonm\u00e6ssige forbedringer, som normalt styrker fjerde kvartal, har endnu ikke haft […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[67,68],"tags":[],"post_folder":[71,13],"class_list":["post-44771","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-da","category-market-news"],"yoast_head":"\nMonthly Dec. 2024 - DA - European Maritime Finance<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/maritimefinance.eu\/da\/monthly-dec-2024-da\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"da_DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monthly Dec. 2024 - DA - European Maritime Finance\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Positivitet omkring tankmarkedet frem mod 2025 \u00d8get eftersp\u00f8rgsel efter r\u00e5olie kan give et l\u00f8ft i det kommende \u00e5r. I begyndelsen af december var den gennemsnitlige indtjening for r\u00e5olietankere omkring 36.000 dollar per dag. Suezmax- og Aframax-segmenterne har vist sig at v\u00e6re de mest robuste. 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