{"id":60974,"date":"2026-09-04T13:25:01","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T11:25:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/maritimefinance.eu\/?p=60974"},"modified":"2026-09-04T13:25:06","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T11:25:06","slug":"el-nino-hvad-er-det-og-hvordan-pavirker-det-vlgc-markedet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/maritimefinance.eu\/da\/el-nino-hvad-er-det-og-hvordan-pavirker-det-vlgc-markedet\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o: Hvad er det \u2013 og hvordan p\u00e5virker det VLGC-markedet?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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El Ni\u00f1o har f\u00f8rt til mindre nedb\u00f8r og lavere vandstand i de s\u00f8er, der forsyner Panamakanalens sluser med vand. Det betyder f\u00e6rre daglige skibspassager og har gjort det markant dyrere at transportere LPG gennem kanalen fra USA til Asien.<\/h4>\n

El Ni\u00f1o reducerer kapaciteten i Panamakanalen<\/strong><\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o er et naturligt klimaf\u00e6nomen, der typisk opst\u00e5r med to til syv \u00e5rs mellemrum. H\u00f8jere havtemperaturer i Stillehavet \u00e6ndrer nedb\u00f8rsm\u00f8nstrene og medf\u00f8rer ofte mindre regn i Mellemamerika.<\/p>\n

If\u00f8lge NOAA begyndte El Ni\u00f1o i juni 2026 og forventes at blive kraftigere frem mod \u00e5rets udgang med st\u00f8rst effekt fra oktober til december.<\/p>\n

For skibsfarten er vandstanden afg\u00f8rende. Panamakanalens sluser er afh\u00e6ngige af ferskvand fra Gat\u00fan- og Alhajuela-s\u00f8erne. Fra maj til august l\u00e5 nedb\u00f8ren i kanalens opland 34% under normalen, hvilket i juli f\u00f8rte til en reduktion af den maksimalt tilladte dybgang for Neopanamax-skibe.<\/p>\n

Samtidig reduceres antallet af daglige passager fra 36 til 34 den 3. september og yderligere til 32 den 15. september.<\/p>\n

Begr\u00e6nset kapacitet i Panama driver VLGC-raterne<\/strong><\/p>\n

VLGC’er, der transporterer LPG fra den amerikanske golfkyst til Asien, er afh\u00e6ngige af de st\u00f8rre Neopanamax-sluser, og der findes ingen tilsvarende kort alternativ rute.<\/p>\n

Den begr\u00e6nsede kapacitet har sendt priserne for passage kraftigt op. Den 26. august betalte SK Gas rekordh\u00f8je USD 5,3 mio. for en nordg\u00e5ende passage gennem kanalen. F\u00f8r februar l\u00e5 den gennemsnitlige auktionspris p\u00e5 omkring USD 55.000.<\/p>\n

Rederierne reagerer blandt andet ved at sejle den l\u00e6ngere rute omkring Kap det Gode H\u00e5b eller ved at benytte mindre skibe, som kan passere gennem de \u00e6ldre sluser. Der er ogs\u00e5 eksempler p\u00e5 skibe, der sejler hele vejen rundt om Sydamerika, hvilket kan forl\u00e6nge rejsen med omkring en m\u00e5ned.<\/p>\n

De l\u00e6ngere sejlruter betyder, at skibene er optaget i l\u00e6ngere tid og dermed ikke er tilg\u00e6ngelige til nye laster. Det reducerer den tilg\u00e6ngelige kapacitet og er med til at underst\u00f8tte raterne.<\/p>\n

P\u00e5 ruten fra Houston til Chiba ligger VLGC-raterne fortsat omkring USD 155.000 pr. dag, og den et\u00e5rige timecharterrate for et moderne skib p\u00e5 84.000 cbm er steget 15% siden juli til USD 69.865 pr. dag.<\/p>\n

Det centrale sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l er nu, hvor l\u00e6nge kapacitetsproblemerne vil forts\u00e6tte. En gen\u00e5bning af Hormuzstr\u00e6det kan reducere eftersp\u00f8rgslen efter passage gennem Panamakanalen, men vil ikke l\u00f8se problemet med den lave vandstand, som begr\u00e6nser antallet af daglige passager.<\/p>\n

Da El Ni\u00f1o forventes at blive kraftigere frem mod \u00e5rets udgang, kan den begr\u00e6nsede kapacitet i Panamakanalen fortsat f\u00e5 stor betydning for VLGC-raterne i de kommende m\u00e5neder.<\/p>\n

Kilder: Bloomberg, Clarksons Research, gCaptain, NOAA & Panama Canal Authority<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El Ni\u00f1o har f\u00f8rt til mindre nedb\u00f8r og lavere vandstand i de s\u00f8er, der forsyner Panamakanalens sluser med vand. Det betyder f\u00e6rre daglige skibspassager og har gjort det markant dyrere at transportere LPG gennem kanalen fra USA til Asien. El Ni\u00f1o reducerer kapaciteten i Panamakanalen El Ni\u00f1o er et naturligt klimaf\u00e6nomen, der typisk opst\u00e5r med […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[67,68],"tags":[],"post_folder":[71,13],"class_list":["post-60974","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-da","category-market-news"],"yoast_head":"\nEl Ni\u00f1o: Hvad er det \u2013 og hvordan p\u00e5virker det VLGC-markedet? - European Maritime Finance<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/maritimefinance.eu\/da\/el-nino-hvad-er-det-og-hvordan-pavirker-det-vlgc-markedet\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"da_DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"El Ni\u00f1o: Hvad er det \u2013 og hvordan p\u00e5virker det VLGC-markedet? - European Maritime Finance\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"El Ni\u00f1o har f\u00f8rt til mindre nedb\u00f8r og lavere vandstand i de s\u00f8er, der forsyner Panamakanalens sluser med vand. 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