{"id":60975,"date":"2026-09-04T13:22:43","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T11:22:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/maritimefinance.eu\/?p=60975"},"modified":"2026-09-04T13:22:45","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T11:22:45","slug":"seks-maneder-med-konflikten-mellem-usa-og-iran-hvad-har-aendret-sig-for-shipping","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/maritimefinance.eu\/da\/seks-maneder-med-konflikten-mellem-usa-og-iran-hvad-har-aendret-sig-for-shipping\/","title":{"rendered":"Seks m\u00e5neder med konflikten mellem USA og Iran \u2013 hvad har \u00e6ndret sig for shipping?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Tankrater, skibsv\u00e6rdier og handelsruter har \u00e6ndret sig markant siden 28. februar. Selv hvis konflikten nedtrappes, kan de \u00e6ndrede handelsruter og l\u00e6ngere sejlafstande fortsat f\u00e5 betydning for tankmarkedet.<\/h4>

Tankrater og skibsv\u00e6rdier er steget markant<\/strong><\/p>

Amerikanske og israelske angreb p\u00e5 Iran den 28. februar 2026 fik Iran til at lukke Hormuzstr\u00e6det. F\u00f8r lukningen var str\u00e6det en af verdens vigtigste sejlruter for transport af b\u00e5de olie og gas.<\/p>

Den begr\u00e6nsede passage har siden \u00e6ndret handelsruterne for begge markeder. Olie transporteres i st\u00f8rre omfang ad alternative og l\u00e6ngere ruter, mens asiatiske LPG-k\u00f8bere i h\u00f8jere grad har hentet deres forsyninger fra USA. Det har \u00f8get transportafstandene og betyder, at skibene er optaget i l\u00e6ngere tid, hvilket har reduceret antallet af tilg\u00e6ngelige skibe og v\u00e6ret med til at sende b\u00e5de tanker- og VLGC-raterne markant op.<\/p>

VLCC-raterne er steget fra et gennemsnit p\u00e5 omkring USD 58.500 pr. dag i 2025 til omkring USD 230.000 pr. dag. Suezmax-raterne er steget fra ca. USD 58.000 til USD 179.000 pr. dag, og Aframax-raterne fra ca. USD 48.000 til USD 100.000 pr. dag.<\/p>

Ogs\u00e5 VLGC-markedet er steget markant. P\u00e5 ruten fra Houston til Chiba er raterne steget fra USD 52.288 til USD 154.618 pr. dag.<\/p>

De h\u00f8je rater afspejles ogs\u00e5 i skibsv\u00e6rdierne. En fem \u00e5r gammel VLCC vurderes nu til USD 157 mio. mod USD 120 mio. ved udgangen af 2025. For en fem \u00e5r gammel Suezmax er v\u00e6rdien steget fra USD 80 mio. til USD 108 mio.<\/p>

Det samlede prisindeks for fem \u00e5r gamle tankskibe ligger 29% h\u00f8jere end for et \u00e5r siden.<\/p>

L\u00e6ngere sejlruter underst\u00f8tter markedet trods lavere olieeksport<\/strong><\/p>

Clarksons forventer, at den s\u00f8b\u00e5rne eksport af r\u00e5olie falder 5% i 2026, og at olieproduktionen i Mellem\u00f8sten falder 16%. Alligevel ventes ton-mile-eftersp\u00f8rgslen at stige 1,5%.<\/p>

Forklaringen er de l\u00e6ngere sejlruter.<\/p>

Kun fem skibe passerede Hormuzstr\u00e6det den 25. august mod et gennemsnit p\u00e5 15 om dagen over de foreg\u00e5ende ti dage. Omladning af olie mellem skibe uden for str\u00e6det har samtidig bragt olietransporterne op p\u00e5 omkring 7 mio. t\u00f8nder om dagen.<\/p>

Saudiarabisk olie transporteres desuden nordp\u00e5 til Sidi Kerir i Egypten, og omkring halvdelen af lasterne herfra i august blev sejlet til Asien via Kap det Gode H\u00e5b.<\/p>

De \u00e6ndrede handelsruter betyder, at olien transporteres over l\u00e6ngere afstande. Skibene er derfor optaget i l\u00e6ngere tid og ikke tilg\u00e6ngelige til nye laster. Det reducerer antallet af tilg\u00e6ngelige skibe og er med til at underst\u00f8tte raterne.<\/p>

Flere tankskibe er bestilt, men leveres f\u00f8rst fra 2028<\/strong><\/p>

De h\u00f8je rater og stigende skibsv\u00e6rdier har f\u00f8rt til flere bestillinger af nye tankskibe. I \u00e5rets f\u00f8rste otte m\u00e5neder blev der kontraheret 508 nye olietankere mod 340 i hele 2025.<\/p>

N\u00e6sten ingen af de nybestilte skibe bliver dog leveret f\u00f8r 2028. Det betyder, at den nye kapacitet kun i begr\u00e6nset omfang vil p\u00e5virke markedet p\u00e5 kort sigt.<\/p>

For investorer er det derfor vigtigt at skelne mellem de markedsudsving, der direkte skyldes konflikten, og de mere langsigtede konsekvenser af de \u00e6ndrede handelsruter.<\/p>

En aftale om Hormuzstr\u00e6det kan hurtigt \u00e6ndre markedsforholdene og forkorte nogle af de nuv\u00e6rende sejlruter. Men l\u00e6ngere handelsruter, mere end 1.000 sanktionerede tankskibe og f\u00e5 leveringer af nye skibe f\u00f8r 2028 kan fortsat begr\u00e6nse antallet af tilg\u00e6ngelige skibe og underst\u00f8tte b\u00e5de rater og skibsv\u00e6rdier ind i 2027.<\/p>

Kilder: Bloomberg, Clarksons Research, CNBC, Kpler & MB Shipbrokers<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tankrater, skibsv\u00e6rdier og handelsruter har \u00e6ndret sig markant siden 28. februar. Selv hvis konflikten nedtrappes, kan de \u00e6ndrede handelsruter og l\u00e6ngere sejlafstande fortsat f\u00e5 betydning for tankmarkedet. Tankrater og skibsv\u00e6rdier er steget markant Amerikanske og israelske angreb p\u00e5 Iran den 28. februar 2026 fik Iran til at lukke Hormuzstr\u00e6det. F\u00f8r lukningen var str\u00e6det en af […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[67,68],"tags":[],"post_folder":[71,13],"class_list":["post-60975","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-da","category-market-news"],"yoast_head":"\nSeks m\u00e5neder med konflikten mellem USA og Iran \u2013 hvad har \u00e6ndret sig for shipping? - European Maritime Finance<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/maritimefinance.eu\/da\/seks-maneder-med-konflikten-mellem-usa-og-iran-hvad-har-aendret-sig-for-shipping\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"da_DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Seks m\u00e5neder med konflikten mellem USA og Iran \u2013 hvad har \u00e6ndret sig for shipping? - European Maritime Finance\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Tankrater, skibsv\u00e6rdier og handelsruter har \u00e6ndret sig markant siden 28. februar. 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Selv hvis konflikten nedtrappes, kan de \u00e6ndrede handelsruter og l\u00e6ngere sejlafstande fortsat f\u00e5 betydning for tankmarkedet. Tankrater og skibsv\u00e6rdier er steget markant Amerikanske og israelske angreb p\u00e5 Iran den 28. februar 2026 fik Iran til at lukke Hormuzstr\u00e6det. 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