{"id":61399,"date":"2026-09-25T15:30:06","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T13:30:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/maritimefinance.eu\/?p=61399"},"modified":"2026-09-25T15:33:58","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T13:33:58","slug":"derfor-adskiller-det-nuvaerende-tankmarked-sig-fra-den-seneste-supercyklus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/maritimefinance.eu\/da\/derfor-adskiller-det-nuvaerende-tankmarked-sig-fra-den-seneste-supercyklus\/","title":{"rendered":"Derfor adskiller det nuv\u00e6rende tankmarked sig fra den seneste supercyklus"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Derfor adskiller det nuv\u00e6rende tankmarked sig fra den seneste supercyklus<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Rekordh\u00f8je tankrater trods faldende oliehandel viser, at markedet i h\u00f8j grad drives af \u00e6ndrede transportruter og reduceret fl\u00e5deeffektivitet frem for stigende olieeftersp\u00f8rgsel.<\/h4>

Den h\u00f8je indtjening skyldes reduceret fl\u00e5deeffektivitet \u2013 ikke stigende olieeftersp\u00f8rgsel<\/strong><\/p>

Det er n\u00e6rliggende at sammenligne det nuv\u00e6rende tankmarked med den seneste store supercyklus i 2007-2008, s\u00e6rligt n\u00e5r spotraterne n\u00e5r niveauer, der ikke er set i flere \u00e5r. Men de forhold, der driver markedet i dag, er v\u00e6sentligt anderledes.<\/p>

BRS Shipbrokers fremh\u00e6ver, at den tidligere optur i h\u00f8j grad var drevet af Kinas hastigt stigende olieeftersp\u00f8rgsel. I dag er situationen en anden. Clarksons forventer, at den s\u00f8b\u00e5rne handel med r\u00e5olie vil falde med omkring 7 % i \u00e5r.<\/p>

Det afg\u00f8rende er i stedet, at transporten af hver t\u00f8nde olie kr\u00e6ver mere skibskapacitet end tidligere.<\/p>

Olieproducenterne i Den Persiske Golf benytter i stigende grad VLCC-tankskibe til at transportere r\u00e5olie gennem Hormuzstr\u00e6det til Omanbugten, hvor lasten overf\u00f8res til andre tankskibe for den videre transport.<\/p>

En olielast, der normalt ville kr\u00e6ve \u00e9t skib, kan derfor nu kr\u00e6ve to.<\/p>

Det har bundet et betydeligt antal VLCC-tankskibe og reduceret tilg\u00e6ngeligheden i det \u00f8vrige marked. I sidste uge steg indtjeningen p\u00e5 den toneangivende VLCC-rute til over USD 1 mio. om dagen.<\/p>

Med f\u00e6rre VLCC-tankskibe til r\u00e5dighed v\u00e6lger befragterne i stigende grad Suezmax- og Aframax-tankskibe, hvilket har l\u00f8ftet den gennemsnitlige indtjening til omkring USD 375.000 om dagen for Suezmax og USD 185.000 om dagen for Aframax.<\/p>

Hvor stor en del af den ekstra eftersp\u00f8rgsel vil forts\u00e6tte?<\/strong><\/p>

BRS Shipbrokers vurderer, at dele af de nuv\u00e6rende skib-til-skib-overf\u00f8rsler kan forts\u00e6tte, selv efter at trafikken gennem Hormuzstr\u00e6det er normaliseret.<\/p>

Disse transporter binder allerede omkring 15 % af VLCC-fl\u00e5den i det traditionelle marked. Selv hvis kun en del af aktiviteten forts\u00e6tter, vil det begr\u00e6nse antallet af skibe til r\u00e5dighed i det \u00f8vrige marked.<\/p>

Samtidig er den reelle tilg\u00e6ngelighed af tankskibe mere begr\u00e6nset, end den samlede fl\u00e5dest\u00f8rrelse umiddelbart viser.<\/p>

Omkring 200 VLCC-tankskibe opererer uden for det traditionelle marked som f\u00f8lge af sanktioner og transporterer nu prim\u00e6rt iransk olie. Disse skibe er derfor i vid udstr\u00e6kning ikke tilg\u00e6ngelige for de traditionelle befragtere.<\/p>

BRS forventer desuden, at en genopbygning af olielagrene vil \u00f8ge eftersp\u00f8rgslen efter tankskibstransport. Det samlede behov kan overstige 1,7 mia. t\u00f8nder olie i perioden 2027-2028.<\/p>

De h\u00f8je rater har allerede bredt sig fra spotmarkedet til periodemarkedet.<\/p>

De \u00e9t\u00e5rige timecharterrater ligger nu omkring USD 175.000 om dagen for VLCC, USD 130.000 om dagen for Suezmax og USD 75.000 om dagen for Aframax.<\/p>

Udviklingen afspejles ogs\u00e5 i skibsv\u00e6rdierne. Et fem \u00e5r gammelt VLCC-tankskib vurderes nu til omkring USD 169 mio., hvilket overstiger nybygningsprisen p\u00e5 cirka USD 131 mio.<\/p>

Den v\u00e6sentligste faktor, der kan d\u00e6mpe markedet p\u00e5 l\u00e6ngere sigt, er tilgangen af nye tankskibe. St\u00f8rstedelen af de nye VLCC- og Suezmax-tankskibe forventes dog f\u00f8rst leveret fra 2028 og frem.<\/p>

Kilder: BRS Shipbrokers og Clarksons Research<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Derfor adskiller det nuv\u00e6rende tankmarked sig fra den seneste supercyklus Rekordh\u00f8je tankrater trods faldende oliehandel viser, at markedet i h\u00f8j grad drives af \u00e6ndrede transportruter og reduceret fl\u00e5deeffektivitet frem for stigende olieeftersp\u00f8rgsel. Den h\u00f8je indtjening skyldes reduceret fl\u00e5deeffektivitet \u2013 ikke stigende olieeftersp\u00f8rgsel Det er n\u00e6rliggende at sammenligne det nuv\u00e6rende tankmarked med den seneste store supercyklus […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[67,68],"tags":[],"post_folder":[71,13],"class_list":["post-61399","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-da","category-market-news"],"yoast_head":"\nDerfor adskiller det nuv\u00e6rende tankmarked sig fra den seneste supercyklus - European Maritime Finance<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/maritimefinance.eu\/da\/derfor-adskiller-det-nuvaerende-tankmarked-sig-fra-den-seneste-supercyklus\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"da_DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Derfor adskiller det nuv\u00e6rende tankmarked sig fra den seneste supercyklus - European Maritime Finance\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Derfor adskiller det nuv\u00e6rende tankmarked sig fra den seneste supercyklus Rekordh\u00f8je tankrater trods faldende oliehandel viser, at markedet i h\u00f8j grad drives af \u00e6ndrede transportruter og reduceret fl\u00e5deeffektivitet frem for stigende olieeftersp\u00f8rgsel. 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