Volatile month ends on high rates, even after late market drop-off

January has been an active and volatile month for the tanker market. The geopolitical events surrounding new US sanctions, targeting vessels transporting Iranian and Russian oil above the price cap, caused tanker rates to spike sharply earlier in January. Nearly 400 tankers – around 10% of the global fleet – were added to the sanctions list, with some Indian and Chinese ports refusing these ships. This removal of capacity drove demand for compliant vessels, particularly in the larger tanker segments. At their peak, rates increased by more than 100%, reflecting the immediate impact of these measures.

Two weeks later, the market has cooled off, with rates declining from their highs. However, FFA markets remain elevated, indicating continued positive sentiment for the months ahead.

Tanker scrapping activity on the rise

Adding to these market developments is a notable uptick in scrapping activity in recent weeks.
The Cameroon-flagged VLCC Amor was sold for demolition in India, marking the first VLCC scrapping in over two years. This appears to have started a trend, with three more tankers – Itaugua (300,000 dwt), Enzo (105,000 dwt), and a product tanker from 1998 – also heading for recycling. This increased scrapping could help reduce ageing tonnage and provide further support for the unsanctioned fleet in the long term.

Source: Arctic shipping, Clarksons Research.