Oil prices edged modestly higher over the week, supported by renewed geopolitical uncertainty linked to Iran. Brent traded around USD 64 per barrel and WTI near USD 60 per barrel as markets reacted to US signals of a tougher stance toward Tehran, including the possibility of a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. While no physical supply disruption has materialised, the uncertainty itself has been enough to keep a risk premium in prices. At the same time, expectations of strong global supply growth and softer demand momentum, particularly from China, continue to limit further upside.

Signs of shifting Iranian export flows
There are indications that Iranian crude exports may already be declining, with recent estimates suggesting a sharp drop in volumes compared with late 2024 levels. If confirmed, this would imply that Chinese buyers are increasingly sourcing crude from other exporters, potentially contributing to the resilience in oil prices despite forecasts of oversupply and rising seaborne crude exports globally. Vessel tracking data continues to show dark fleet activity loading in Iran, though relatively few voyages appear to have been completed in recent weeks, reinforcing uncertainty around the true level of Iranian exports.