Rates boost is expected as further vessels are blacklisted

The US has blacklisted 13 more tankers, including five VLCCs, while the EU has added 65 tankers to its list, further restricting sanctioned crude exports. These sanctions on shadow fleet tankers are set to increase demand for mainstream vessels, according to Fearnley Securities.

Pronounced decline for Iranian exports
With over 10% of VLCCs and Suezmaxes now blacklisted, and nearly 20% of the Aframax/LR2 fleet affected, crude and product exports from Iran and Russia are becoming increasingly complex. Iranian oil exports to China have already dropped by 400,000 barrels per day this year, signaling the impact of these measures.

Compliant vessels in short supply – few replacements coming
Fearnley estimates that replacing one million barrels per day of crude imports into China from alternative sources would require a considerable amount of oil tankers. However, with only a few deliveries expected in 2025, they expect a deficit of compliant crude tankers going forward. The tightening fleet supply could push rates higher in the weeks to come, reinforcing the bullish outlook on the tanker market.