Market strengthens as sanctions take effect

We’re now seeing the positive effects of a market dynamic we’ve been observing for some time: the shrinking pool of compliant tankers. As sanctions continue to divide the global fleet into two categories – compliant and non-compliant (which includes both shadow and sanctioned vessels) – the number of ships available for unrestricted trade is becoming more limited. And this is starting to show up in earnings.

Earnings boosts rising sharply, defying soft spring demand
Suezmax and Aframax segments are leading the way, with spot rates climbing well above recent averages. Many vessels in these classes are now earning 20–30% more than they did in the second half of 2024. This is notable given the typically softer demand seen in spring. These mid-sized crude tankers are particularly benefiting from rising cargo volumes and their flexibility in regional trades – especially as fewer compliant vessels are available to meet growing demand.

While we may still see short-term fluctuations due to timing or local imbalances, the larger picture is clear: a constrained compliant fleet is creating favorable market conditions.