Recent strikes by Black Sea maritime forces have triggered a dramatic spike in war-risk premiums for ships and tankers operating in the region. Within the past month, insurance costs for vessels calling at Black Sea ports have nearly tripled, rising from roughly 0.25-0.3 % to 0.6-0.75 % of hull value, reflecting mounting danger for shipping companies. The surge follows drone attacks on sanctioned tankers linked to Russia’s “shadow fleet”, as well as strikes on other commercial vessels navigating adjacent waters. The surge in risk has led many owners to reassess their exposure, with short term cover now priced daily and some operators choosing to avoid the basin altogether, a trend reinforced by seasonal ice conditions and growing scrutiny of sanctioned fleets.

This shift is already influencing shipping markets. Higher risk premiums and reduced owner willingness to enter the region have tightened effective tanker supply, supporting firmer sentiment on alternative routes as Russian crude flows redirect and longer tonne-mile patterns emerge. The escalation adds a maritime dimension to the broader conflict and highlights how evolving security conditions, sanctions enforcement and winter navigation constraints continue to shape vessel deployment, insurance pricing and global trade patterns.