Ukraine has claimed a strike on Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery, one of Russia’s largest processing sites, with explosions and fire reported at the facility. This follows the recent attack on Novorossiysk, which briefly halted crude loadings at Russia’s main Black Sea export hub before operations resumed.

Black Sea corridor under pressure
Risk levels in the Black Sea continue to rise as long-range strikes by both sides target energy and port infrastructure. The temporary shutdown at Novorossiysk removed a meaningful share of Russian export capacity and added pressure to reroute crude flows. In Ukrainian waters, port security remains at its highest level and drone activity has been reported near commercial vessels, raising safety concerns and contributing to higher insurance and routing costs.

Impact of US sanctions
US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft are disrupting Russian crude flows. Lukoil is cutting staff and has declared force majeure at its Iraqi field after payments and cargo loadings were halted. Several large Indian refiners have paused Russian crude orders for next month and are shifting toward Middle Eastern suppliers, while European and Gulf authorities work to keep local Lukoil operations stable.

Shipping market implications
These developments add to volatility in Russian export routes and support higher tanker utilisation at a moment when the tanker market is already near a five year high. Increased rerouting, longer tonne-miles and shifting trade patterns continue to underpin firm earnings, while winter LNG demand provides additional support for gas carrier activity.