Oil prices steadied on Monday after a three percent drop last week as markets assessed two major variables that could reshape supply expectations. Investors continue to watch the prospect of a US rate cut, while also following the renewed push for a Ukraine peace framework. Washington and Kyiv are working on a revised proposal ahead of a Thursday deadline set by President Trump, who asked both sides to deliver an adjusted plan after the initial draft was criticised as too favourable to Moscow. The deadline has raised expectations that any emerging proposal could influence future sanctions decisions, which would directly affect Russian crude export flows and global supply balances.

According to Reuters, figures indicate that Russian state oil and gas revenue may fall by about thirty five percent in November from a year earlier. The drop reflects weaker crude prices and a stronger rouble. Together, these developments underline a period of heightened geopolitical sensitivity for energy markets. Sanctions policy, peace talks, and Russia’s fiscal trajectory remain important factors, given their potential to influence supply routes, risk premiums and overall market stability heading into early 2026.