Elevated risk premiums on Russian trades, steady PCTC rates, and improving VLGC sentiment
Tanker: Aframax strength uplifts tanker segment
It was another strong week for tankers, even though the overall average eased slightly due to setbacks in the VL and Suezmax markets. VLCC rates declined as delays in China slowed vessel resupply, creating port congestion. Suezmax rates saw slight softening across key routes, contributing to the dip in the weekly average. Despite this, fundamentals remain strong as scheduling changes and downsized Black Sea stems continue to influence regional balances. Aframaxes again provided notable support, with Aframax strength helping offset softer Suezmax performance and maintain an elevated overall tanker environment.
LPG/VLGC: Western activity supports a modest improvement in VLGC spot earnings
The VLGC spot market saw a steady to slightly firmer week, supported by decent activity in the West that helped lift overall sentiment. Average spot earnings rose 2 percent week-on-week. In the East, the position list for late December remained relatively long, and cargo visibility was limited, which kept rate ideas from tightening further. But stronger fixture activity in the West underpinned owners’ confidence. This combination of firmer Western activity and balanced supply dynamics supported the modest week-on-week improvement in VLGC spot earnings.
PCTC: Stable market after earlier tightness
PCTC charter rates remained unchanged this week at 42,500 dollars per day for a 6,500 CEU vessel. Although rates remain historically elevated, the latest assessment shows a softer trend compared with previous months as the market continues to digest earlier supply tightness. Vehicle shipping demand remains solid, but the rate stabilisation indicates that seasonal and logistical factors are now balancing the market more broadly
Geopolitical: Russian crude flows weaken while risk premiums rise
Indian imports of Russian crude remain in focus as reports indicate volumes could fall to a three year low in December. Global seaborne oil flows fell by 850 thousand barrels per day, driven by sharp declines from Russian Black Sea ports. This development comes amid ongoing shifts in global crude trade flows and continued volatility in the shadow fleet. Additionally, insurance rates for calls at Russian ports have more than tripled after recent vessel attacks.
Sources: Clarksons, BRS Tankers & Reuters