Industry experts foresee upsides as more oil enters market

The current optimistic outlook for the tanker market is now being emphasised by leading industry experts. With more oil expected to enter the market, a tight vessel balance due to sanctions, and an ageing fleet, these conditions indicate potential upside risk going forward – factors we have touched upon in earlier editions of the Weekly.

This week, leading industry analysts from Clarkson Research and Fearnleys have weighed in, underscoring the same themes that are increasingly shaping sentiment across the market. “Improving freight fundamentals, rising OPEC+ production, and deepening sanctions are all reshaping sentiment,” noted Frode Mørkedal, Even Kolsgaard og Bendik Folden Nyttingnes in a joint market update.

Huge demand expected – tanker supply tightening
OPEC+’s planned production increase of 2.2 million barrels per day from April through June is anticipated to result in a significant rise in seaborne crude volumes, equivalent to approximately 70 Suezmax shipments. At the same time, the global tanker orderbook remains at historic lows, while much of the existing fleet is ageing, indicating limited fleet growth and an increasing likelihood of scrapping over time.

Shadow fleet feeling the pinch of ever stricter sanctions
Meanwhile, regulatory pressure on shadow fleet operations continues to intensify, as new rounds of sanctions from Western governments further restrict access for non-compliant tonnage. This not only redirects more trade back to the mainstream fleet but also nurtures a firmer rate environment over the medium term.

While the spot market may remain volatile in the short term, the strategic outlook for the tanker segment is increasingly being acknowledged as constructive by key market observers.