Tanker: Continued strength in firm crude markets
In the Suezmax segment, off-market fixing allowed charterers to cover prompt requirements with only limited rate upside, though tightening tonnage is beginning to support a more constructive near-term outlook. Aframax markets showed mixed regional dynamics, with softer conditions in the North Sea offset by improving activity in the Mediterranean as position lists tightened. Overall, the tanker market closed the week balanced but resilient, with fundamentals continuing to tilt gradually in owners’ favour.

LPG/VLGC: Tight tonnage supports firmer year-end sentiment
The VLGC market was quiet for much of the week, particularly in the East, before activity picked up toward the end as early January cargoes were concluded. Owners continued to push levels amid limited tonnage availability, with premiums emerging for cargoes loading outside the main Middle East route. In the West, pre-Christmas fixing activity significantly tightened the prompt position list, leaving only a handful of vessels available for January liftings and pushing rates higher. Despite some late week narrowing of arbitrage economics, sentiment remains constructive as fixing windows extend, and tonnage stays tight.

PCTC: Policy shifts reshape EV trade flows
PCTC market sentiment continues to be shaped by policy driven shifts in global vehicle trade, with protectionist measures and uneven demand trends influencing flows. Mexico’s approval of steep tariffs on Chinese built cars and the EU’s ongoing debate around EV pricing and local content rules point to a more fragmented trade environment, while softer domestic car sales in China contrast with still resilient vehicle export growth. Against this backdrop, PCTC freight markets have remained stable, with Clarksons estimating one year time charter rates at around $42,500 per day for a 6,500 CEU vessel. With Chinese volumes increasingly redirected away from the US and toward Europe and other emerging markets, and Asian vehicle manufacturers expanding their international footprint, car carrier demand continues to be supported by longer haul export routes despite rising regulatory uncertainty.

Geopolitical: Sanctions and supply management shape sentiment
Geopolitical developments continue to influence energy markets, with sentiment dominated by oversupply concerns tempered by policy and sanctions dynamics. China’s ongoing crude stockpiling is absorbing part of the surplus, with Saudi exports to China rising to a three-month high, while the IEA has lowered its projected surplus for next year, supported by stronger demand growth and reduced supply from sanctioned producers. At the same time, Russia’s crude output remains well below its OPEC+ quota as sanctions deter buyers, and India has reportedly curtailed Russian imports under US pressure. Adding to enforcement risks, the US seizure of a sanctioned VLCC off the Venezuelan coast underscores tighter sanctions oversight, reinforcing uncertainty around sanctioned oil flows and global trade patterns.