Tanker: Middle East escalation drives record freight rates
The crude tanker market surged following a rapid escalation in tensions between Israel, the US and Iran, which has severely disrupted tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian attacks on tankers and the withdrawal of war risk insurance have halted normal passage through the region, tightening available tonnage and pushing freight markets to extreme highs. VLCC earnings on key Middle East routes surged above USD 400,000 per day, lifting global average earnings to their highest level since 2008. The shock has cascaded across the broader tanker market; Suezmax rates also moved higher to roughly USD 158,000 per day, with global average earnings rising 23% week-on-week. Market liquidity remains limited and several reported fixtures remain unconfirmed, raising questions about how representative current index levels are in an environment with very few concluded transactions. If disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, effective vessel supply could tighten further and support elevated freight levels, although any normalization of transit or insurance coverage could release trapped tonnage and trigger a rapid correction.

LPG/VLGC: Terminal damage disrupts cargo availability
LPG shipping also faced supply disruption with Saudi Aramco cancelling multiple LPG cargoes from its Juaymah export terminal through March due to structural damage. As a result, VLGC spot earnings declined to roughly USD 69,800 per day despite stronger voyage freight levels on some routes, reflecting short term regional imbalances rather than a structural shift in market fundamentals. The supply disruption tightens supply for Asian markets and widens arbitrages between US Gulf, Europe, and Asia. VLGC rate sentiment remains generally firm with ongoing long‑haul trade flows. Looking ahead, the market direction will depend on how quickly export operations normalize and how vessel positioning evolves, with a tightening prompt vessel list potentially supporting a recovery in spot earnings.

PCTC: Limited vessel availability supports charter rates
The market remained firm, with six-to-twelve-month timecharter rates for a modern 6,500 CEU vessel increasing to approximately USD 50,000 per day. The strength reflects limited near term vessel availability as charterers continue to secure forward coverage in a market where fleet supply adjusts slowly due to long newbuild lead times. Demand for vehicle transportation remains supported by steady global automotive export flows and continued trade from major manufacturing regions. Looking ahead, the primary downside risk remains macroeconomic, as weaker vehicle demand or disruptions to automotive production could reduce cargo volumes, although the tight fleet structure may moderate the pace of any freight correction.

Geopolitics: US-Iran escalation disrupts shipping routes
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated sharply following coordinated strikes by the United States and Israel on Iranian targets, triggering retaliatory attacks and significant disruption to maritime activity in the Persian Gulf. Iranian strikes on commercial vessels and the withdrawal of war risk insurance coverage have severely affected tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping corridors. The disruption has tightened effective vessel supply as ships delay voyages, reroute, or await clarity on insurance and security conditions. While the situation remains fluid, prolonged instability in the region could continue to absorb tanker capacity and support elevated freight markets, whereas any de-escalation or reopening of normal transit routes could quickly release vessel supply back into the market.