Structural market dislocation intensifies into week eight, with no clear path to normalisation Earnings hold firm as the strait remains effectively closedCrude tanker markets softened modestly week-on-week but remain at historically elevated levels across all segments, with 2026 year-to-date averages running at multiples of 2025 levels. The Strait of Hormuz is now in its eighth week of effective closure, with transits averaging around 10 per day versus roughly 125 pre-conflict and down 93% in tonnage terms. Brent has responded, trading

Two developments this week impacting future energy trade UAE to Exit OPEC – Positive for Tanker DemandThe UAE will exit OPEC/OPEC+ on 1 May, citing national interest and a commitment to meeting market demand. The move follows growing tensions, as the UAE has invested heavily to expand production capacity to 5.0 million bpd by 2027, well above its current quota of 3.447 million bpd. The decision is expected to support higher oil production and export volumes over time. It may

Tanker earnings ease but remain structurally elevated Tankers: Earnings soften from peak but hold well above 2025 averagesThe crude tanker market softened week-on-week as limited visible cargo activity applied downward pressure across all size classes, though the correction reflects a normalisation from extraordinary levels rather than a structural retreat. Suezmax and Aframax declined to approximately USD 127,000 per day and USD 107,000 per day respectively, still representing solid levels. Hormuz transits averaged approximately 10 vessels per day following Iran’s re-declaration

Both sides block the waterway to gain leverage during an extended ceasefire As the two-week ceasefire deadline between the US and Iran expired earlier this week, President Donald Trump said the truce agreed to on April 7 would stay in place indefinitely whilst Washington waited for Iran to submit a new peace proposal. Tehran states it has no plans to take part in negotiations in the near future. Despite the prolonged ceasefire, the US continues to maintain its naval blockade

LPG rate surge driven by Panama Canal-congestion, while tanker demand supported by strong US exports Tanker: Crude tanker markets begin to normalize as Hormuz ceasefire opens path to resumption of Gulf flowsCrude spot rates held broadly stable week-on-week, sustained by continued strong demand for vessels moving crude oil on longer Atlantic routes. Rates for both Suezmax and Aframax tankers fell slightly across Atlantic routes, signalling a healthy normalization after weeks of conflict-driven extremes, as more vessels returned from completed voyages

Panama Canal congestion and longer Cape routings constrain vessel availability, supporting elevated freight markets VLGC freight rates have climbed to their highest levels in roughly 2.5 years, driven by a sharp tightening in available vessel supply. Ongoing congestion at the Panama Canal and elevated transit fees are pushing more ships onto the longer Cape of Good Hope route, materially extending voyage times and absorbing capacity. Anfil Gas sates 25% of VLGCs ballasting from the Far East to the US Gulf

Diplomatic fractures and a hardening blockade keep tanker market risk elevated Talks advance but the strait remains closedThe US and Iran are moving closer to extending a ceasefire and restarting negotiations toward a longer-term peace deal, even as the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz intensifies. The two sides have reached an in-principle agreement to pursue further diplomacy following an inconclusive initial round of talks in Pakistan, with mediators pushing for a compromise on outstanding issues including Hormuz and Iran’s

Fuel price shock accelerates EV demand while Middle East closures have limited impact on the segment Higher fuel prices drive EV demand, boosting PCTC cargo outlookRising fuel prices linked to the Iran conflict are accelerating consumer interest in electric vehicles, with a direct and measurable impact on PCTC cargo flows. China’s EV and hybrid exports surged 140% year-on-year to a record 349,000 units in March, driven by strengthening overseas demand as higher petrol prices shift purchasing decisions globally. BYD accounted

LPG leads gains as disrupted flows and longer voyages tighten vessel supply Tankers: VLCC earnings rise to $225,000/day as Hormuz blockade keeps East-West rates sharply splitVLCC earnings rose 12% this week to around $225,000/day, but the number tells only part of the story. Ships loading in the Atlantic are earning closer to $130,000/day, while vessels trading through the Red Sea and Oman are earning far more, because the Persian Gulf has essentially stopped functioning as an oil export region. The

Across engines, vessels, and bunkering infrastructure, ammonia is moving from concept to execution A fuel transition gaining real commercial tractionThe ammonia-as-marine-fuel story has shifted meaningfully in recent months, with several developments confirming that the technology is crossing from pilot stage into early commercial reality. First ammonia dual-fuel engine deliveries are now underway, with established shipowners and engine makers including Wärtsilä, Höegh Autoliners and Exmar all committing to ammonia-capable vessels and propulsion systems across 2026 and 2027. Bunkering infrastructure is progressing