Record tanker rates are emerging despite falling oil trade, suggesting that today’s market is being driven by disrupted supply chains rather than demand growth. Today’s strength is coming from inefficiency, not rising oil demand It is tempting to compare today’s tanker market with the last major supercycle in 2007-08, particularly as spot rates move to levels not seen in years. But the forces behind the two markets are very different. BRS Shipbrokers points out that the previous boom was largely

Disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline is redirecting more crude through the Gulf and forcing European refiners to look further afield, increasing demand for Suezmax and Aframax tankers. Saudi Arabia loses a key alternative to the Strait of Hormuz The geography of Saudi crude exports has shifted again. On 10 September, drone attacks launched from Iraq shut the East-West pipeline, Saudi Arabia’s main route for moving crude from the Gulf to the Red Sea without passing through the Strait of

Ship-to-ship transfers outside Hormuz and tighter Panama Canal capacity continue to absorb vessels and support charter rates. Tankers: VLCC earnings exceed $1 million per day, pulling Suezmax and Aframax rates higher Tanker markets strengthened again last week, with benchmark VLCC earnings from the Middle East Gulf to China rising above $1 million per day. A key reason is the increasingly complex way crude is moving out of the Gulf. Producers are using VLCCs to carry oil through the Strait of

Lower traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is reducing fleet efficiency, while crude flows continue through alternative arrangements. Hormuz traffic remains heavily disrupted Tracked vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to seven on 9 September, around half the recent 10-day average and significantly below pre-conflict levels. The lower traffic reflects continued security risks and has made some shipowners more cautious about using the Strait. Crude continues to move, but with additional tonnage requirements Despite lower visible traffic, an

Limited VLCC availability is shifting demand towards midsize crude tankers, supporting both spot and period rates. VLCC tightness supports midsize tankers VLCC earnings on the Middle East to China route reached around $1.3 million per day last week. Longer voyages and delays related to ship-to-ship transfers are keeping VLCCs occupied for longer, tightening available tonnage. This is supporting demand for Suezmaxes and Aframaxes, with average earnings rising 94% and 87% week-on-week to more than $340,000 and $150,000 per day, respectively.

Lower fleet efficiency and longer voyages continue to support freight rates across energy shipping. Tankers: Suezmax earnings reach record levels as period rates strengthen Crude tanker earnings rose sharply last week, with Suezmax earnings reaching more than $340,000/day, according to Clarksons. Lower fleet efficiency remains the main driver, as longer voyages and ship-to-ship transfers keep vessels occupied for longer. The strength is also visible in the period market, with one-year rates above $100,000/day for Suezmax and $70,000/day for Aframax, well

Vehicle exports are growing faster than the fleet, while limited return cargoes are adding to the capacity squeeze. Export growth continues to support earnings China exported 6.14 million vehicles in the first seven months of 2026, up 67% year-on-year, with monthly volumes above one million units in June and July. Charter rates have responded, with a 6,500 ceu car carrier holding at approximately $85,000 per day in early September, compared with an average of around $49,000 per day in 2025.

Tanker attacks are intensifying as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, with longer voyages and a shrinking dark fleet adding to pressure on tanker supply. Tanker attacks intensify as Hormuz traffic remains disrupted US forces have destroyed at least eight Iranian oil tankers since 5 September, including five overnight into 9 September. The attacks mark a further escalation of the conflict, with Iran retaliating against US warships and commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf. Traffic through the

Longer voyage distances and limited vessel availability continue to support earnings across crude, gas and vehicle carriers, despite weaker underlying trade volumes. Tankers: Suezmax earnings rise 4% to $177,000/day as longer Atlantic voyages support demand Suezmax earnings rose 4% last week to approximately $177,000/day, while Aframax earnings eased 9% to approximately $83,000/day as tonnage availability increased in the Mediterranean. Middle East loadings remain constrained at around 10 million barrels per day, encouraging Indian and Chinese refiners to source replacement cargoes

A warming Pacific has cut Panama Canal capacity, and canal access now sets the cost of moving LPG from the US Gulf to Asia. El Niño tightens an already constrained canal El Niño is a natural climate cycle that typically occurs every two to seven years. Warmer Pacific waters shift rainfall patterns, leaving Central America drier. NOAA declared El Niño conditions on 11 June 2026 and expects a strong event, peaking between October and December. For shipping, the key issue