Unprecedented inventory depletion caused by US-Iran conflict
Two months into the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz, global oil inventories have been drawn down at a pace without historical precedent, with Morgan Stanley estimating a decline of approximately 4.8 million barrels per day between early March and late April, surpassing any previous peak quarterly drawdown in IEA data. Crude accounts for close to 60% of the decline, with refined products and LPG making up the remainder. Outside China, Asia-Pacific stockpiles have fallen by roughly 70 million barrels since the conflict began, Japan and India are each at ten-year seasonal lows, and European jet fuel inventories at the ARA hub have dropped by a third to a six-year low. US distillate stockpiles are at their lowest since 2005, while the IEA-coordinated emergency release has so far deployed only 79.7 million of the 172 million pledged barrels. The scale of the drawdown means that even a gradual reopening of the strait would leave governments and commercial operators facing an extended period of active restocking across multiple product categories.
A sustained restocking cycle points to durable freight demand across tanker and gas segments
For shipping markets, the significance of this inventory depletion lies primarily in what follows. Major operators and analysts expect governments in several countries to replenish strategic reserves above pre-war levels once access is restored, creating a layer of incremental seaborne demand on top of normalised trade flows. Across tanker segments, recovering Gulf export volumes and active restocking flows could sustain elevated tonne-mile demand well into the post-conflict period, particularly if buyers continue sourcing from longer-haul suppliers while inventories are rebuilt. In the VLGC market, depleted LPG and naphtha stocks across Asian petrochemical hubs represent a concentrated restocking requirement, given the scale of drawdowns across non-Chinese Asian inventories. The freight implications therefore extend beyond the reopening date itself, with the rebuilding of commercial and strategic buffers expected to support seaborne demand across crude, products, and gas for a sustained period.
For shipping markets, the significance of this inventory depletion lies primarily in what follows. Major operators and analysts expect governments in several countries to replenish strategic reserves above pre-war levels once access is restored, creating a layer of incremental seaborne demand on top of normalised trade flows. Across tanker segments, recovering Gulf export volumes and active restocking flows could sustain elevated tonne-mile demand well into the post-conflict period, particularly if buyers continue sourcing from longer-haul suppliers while inventories are rebuilt. In the VLGC market, depleted LPG and naphtha stocks across Asian petrochemical hubs represent a concentrated restocking requirement, given the scale of drawdowns across non-Chinese Asian inventories. The freight implications therefore extend beyond the reopening date itself, with the rebuilding of commercial and strategic buffers expected to support seaborne demand across crude, products, and gas for a sustained period.
Sources: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs, IEA, Insights Global, JPMorgan, Kayrros, Morgan Stanley
