Exports picking up rapidly following US intervention Venezuelan crude is re-entering the mainstream oil market following a new US-brokered export framework that allows traders to market up to 50m barrels of crude. Trafigura and Vitol have secured the first licences and are actively moving barrels, including the first direct shipment from Venezuela to the US Gulf. One of EMF’s operating Suezmaxes, Lausanne Star, is currently doing one of these trades. US refiners Valero and Phillips 66 have emerged as the

Strong Aframax performance, PCTC remains firm, and geopolitics influence flows Tanker: Aframax segment experiences strongest week in yearsThe tanker market remained firm overall, led by an exceptional week for the Aframax segment, where earnings surged across key routes amid tight tonnage availability and weather-related disruption. North Sea, Mediterranean and US Gulf markets all saw strong fixing activity, pushing average Aframax earnings to levels not seen in years. While VLCC and Suezmax earnings eased from last week’s peaks, they remain elevated

Iran’s oil exports face both internal and external pressures Market focus around Iran has largely centred on military escalation and chokepoint risk in the Strait of Hormuz, but the more relevant supply risk is increasingly domestic. Iran is currently producing close to 5 million barrels per day of crude and other petroleum liquids, near multi-decade highs, yet this stability is fragile. While the US has recently deployed additional naval assets to the Middle East, signalling that military options remain on

US policy uncertainty raises volatility as Chinese buying patterns shape tanker demand Oil prices edged modestly higher over the week, supported by renewed geopolitical uncertainty linked to Iran. Brent traded around USD 64 per barrel and WTI near USD 60 per barrel as markets reacted to US signals of a tougher stance toward Tehran, including the possibility of a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. While no physical supply disruption has materialised, the uncertainty itself has been enough to

Norway accelerates ammonia readiness Norway continues to lead on ammonia adoption through targeted government support. Azane Infrastructure has secured approximately USD 43 million in ENOVA funding to develop three ammonia bunkering terminals along the Norwegian coast at Florø, Stavanger, and Mongstad. Expected to come online by 2029, these facilities are designed to provide the fuel availability required for ammonia-powered coastal and offshore vessels. Global waterways prepare for lower-emission fuelsBeyond Europe, major maritime corridors are also preparing for a lower-emission future.

Suezmax earnings at a three-year high Tanker: Exceptionally strong week following geopolitical speculationTanker markets strengthened sharply over the week, driven by a surge in crude tanker earnings and tightening tonnage availability across key loading regions. The ClarkSea Index rose 11% week-on-week to USD 31,606 per day, marking the largest weekly increase since early 2021. Fleet weighted tanker earnings climbed 40% week-on-week to approximately USD 59,000 per day, with VLCC and Suezmax earnings exceeding USD 100,000 per day. Strong Middle East

Auto export growth supports PCTC demand; VLGC markets remain firm Tanker: Crude tanker markets re-ignite on Middle East fixingTanker markets rebounded strongly over the week as activity picked up following the holiday slowdown. Earnings rose, driven by increased Middle East Gulf fixing and tighter tonnage availability, with fleet-weighted average earnings climbing around 45% week-on-week to the low-$60,000s per day. Ongoing tensions involving Iran continue to add an underlying geopolitical risk premium to Middle East tanker markets, supporting owner sentiment despite

Re-marketing of Venezuelan crude drives structural change in tanker supply Developments in Venezuela are reshaping global tanker dynamics following the US-led seizure and re-marketing of the country’s oil exports. Commodities traders Vitol and Trafigura have reportedly received authorisation to begin marketing Venezuelan crude, with early discussions underway with buyers in China, India, and the United States. The US is now preparing to market between 30 million and 50 million barrels of seized Venezuelan crude through compliant channels, marking a decisive

Rising geopolitical risk skews sentiment to the upside Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran continue to intensify, with President Trump signalling a tougher stance toward the capital Tehran, including a proposed 25% tariff on goods from countries “doing business” with Iran. While there are no confirmed disruptions to Iranian crude exports at this stage, the rhetoric has contributed to a sharp increase in perceived geopolitical risk, prompting a swift reaction across oil markets. Crude prices have rallied accordingly, with Brent up roughly

Geopolitical pressure reducing Russian crude export Speculation is growing that India may reduce purchases of Russian crude under mounting US pressure, following tariff threats from Washington and new reporting requirements for Indian refiners. Early January data already points to softer Russian flows, with bookings well below recent averages.  Despite ongoing geopolitical risks, oil markets remain structurally oversupplied. Both the International Energy Agency and the US government expect global production to exceed demand by more than 2 million barrels per day in 2025,