Ceasefire extension agreed in principle, but Strait of Hormuz remains shut pending formal approval Washington and Tel Aviv want different things from this warThe central challenge for a Hormuz deal is no longer limited to US-Iran talks alone. Israel’s continued escalation in Lebanon is creating recurring friction in the wider negotiation framework, giving Iran grounds to pause or reassess engagement. At the same time, the parties remain divided on scope, with Iran insisting that any settlement must also address Lebanon.

As ceasefire extension momentum builds, freight rates ease from recent highs Tanker: Earnings soften across all classes as ceasefire optimism weighs on sentimentThe crude tanker market eased across all three classes in the week ending 29 May, with VLCC earnings falling below USD 100,000 per day for the first time in 19 weeks as activity slowed during Posidonia week and US-Iran ceasefire talks advanced. The correction reflects a pullback from recent record highs rather than a fundamental shift in market

Growing EV penetration and automakers’ expanding use of China as an export base are lengthening trade routes and tightening vessel availability Record export volumes and broader trade lanes support structural demand growthChina’s passenger vehicle exports rose 61% year-on-year in the first four months of 2026 to 3.1 million units, driven by both domestic EV manufacturers and global automakers increasingly using Chinese production capacity for overseas markets. Volkswagen, BMW, Nissan, Hyundai and Stellantis are among the companies expanding China-based exports, supported

Declining inventories and limited export growth leave oil market balances exposed heading into peak demand season Supply risks build into the summer windowThe IEA has warned that global oil markets could enter a “red zone” in July and August, as peak summer fuel demand coincides with limited growth in Middle East export volumes and declining inventories. The warning reflects a tightening supply picture shaped in part by ongoing disruptions linked to the Iran conflict, with restrictions on Hormuz transit conditions

Record VLGC rates and Panama Canal congestion add new pressure points alongside a still-disrupted Strait Tankers: VLCC earnings slip below USD 100,000/day for the first time in four monthsThe crude tanker market continued to normalize this week, with VLCC spot earnings briefly falling below USD 100,000 per day for the first time since January and the broader tanker earnings composite down 12% week-on-week to approximately USD 61,000 per day. The decline reflects weaker cargo enquiry rather than any improvement in

Unprecedented inventory depletion caused by US-Iran conflict Two months into the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz, global oil inventories have been drawn down at a pace without historical precedent, with Morgan Stanley estimating a decline of approximately 4.8 million barrels per day between early March and late April, surpassing any previous peak quarterly drawdown in IEA data. Crude accounts for close to 60% of the decline, with refined products and LPG making up the remainder. Outside China, Asia-Pacific

Washington and Beijing endorse Hormuz access, but no reopening mechanism has emerged President Trump’s state visit to Beijing on 15 May produced the clearest signal yet that both Washington and Beijing want the Strait of Hormuz reopened. The White House confirmed that Trump and Xi agreed the strait “must remain open to support the free flow of energy,” with Xi offering to help broker a resolution and confirming that China would not supply military equipment to Iran. Chinese Foreign Minister

LPG earnings ‘set new record highs’ states Clarksons, while tanker rates ease from recent peaks but remain historically strong Tankers: Rates normalise from exceptional highs but remain strongThe recent moderation should be viewed less as market weakness and more as a gradual normalisation after an extended period of conflict-driven volatility and extreme earnings. VLCC rates remained particularly strong, supported by altered trade flows and continued uncertainty around Gulf exports, while Suezmax and Aframax markets saw more uneven activity across key

Record US exports, Panama Canal congestion and vanishing Middle East flows combine to create the tightest VLGC market on record From firm footing to record territoryThe VLGC market entered 2026 on solid ground, with spot earnings averaging USD 73,600 per day in January and February, approximately 50% above the 2025 average. The onset of the Middle East conflict caused a brief dislocation, with earnings initially falling 30% to around USD 48,000 per day as Persian Gulf activity halted and bunker

Broadening cargo base and decelerating fleet supply supports outlook for car carriers High & Heavy adds depth to demand pictureThe PCTC market’s demand base is broadening beyond passenger vehicles. Deep-sea shipments of construction equipment from Asia grew 31% year-on-year in Q1 2026, driven by China at 39%, as infrastructure investment across emerging markets continues to fuel appetite for Asian-built machinery. Global High & Heavy sales (mining equipment and cranes) are forecast to rise 2-4% annually in both 2026 and 2027,