Limited VLCC availability is shifting demand towards midsize crude tankers, supporting both spot and period rates. VLCC tightness supports midsize tankers VLCC earnings on the Middle East to China route reached around $1.3 million per day last week. Longer voyages and delays related to ship-to-ship transfers are keeping VLCCs occupied for longer, tightening available tonnage. This is supporting demand for Suezmaxes and Aframaxes, with average earnings rising 94% and 87% week-on-week to more than $340,000 and $150,000 per day, respectively.

Lower fleet efficiency and longer voyages continue to support freight rates across energy shipping. Tankers: Suezmax earnings reach record levels as period rates strengthen Crude tanker earnings rose sharply last week, with Suezmax earnings reaching more than $340,000/day, according to Clarksons. Lower fleet efficiency remains the main driver, as longer voyages and ship-to-ship transfers keep vessels occupied for longer. The strength is also visible in the period market, with one-year rates above $100,000/day for Suezmax and $70,000/day for Aframax, well

Vehicle exports are growing faster than the fleet, while limited return cargoes are adding to the capacity squeeze. Export growth continues to support earnings China exported 6.14 million vehicles in the first seven months of 2026, up 67% year-on-year, with monthly volumes above one million units in June and July. Charter rates have responded, with a 6,500 ceu car carrier holding at approximately $85,000 per day in early September, compared with an average of around $49,000 per day in 2025.

Tanker attacks are intensifying as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, with longer voyages and a shrinking dark fleet adding to pressure on tanker supply. Tanker attacks intensify as Hormuz traffic remains disrupted US forces have destroyed at least eight Iranian oil tankers since 5 September, including five overnight into 9 September. The attacks mark a further escalation of the conflict, with Iran retaliating against US warships and commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf. Traffic through the

Longer voyage distances and limited vessel availability continue to support earnings across crude, gas and vehicle carriers, despite weaker underlying trade volumes. Tankers: Suezmax earnings rise 4% to $177,000/day as longer Atlantic voyages support demand Suezmax earnings rose 4% last week to approximately $177,000/day, while Aframax earnings eased 9% to approximately $83,000/day as tonnage availability increased in the Mediterranean. Middle East loadings remain constrained at around 10 million barrels per day, encouraging Indian and Chinese refiners to source replacement cargoes

A warming Pacific has cut Panama Canal capacity, and canal access now sets the cost of moving LPG from the US Gulf to Asia. El Niño tightens an already constrained canal El Niño is a natural climate cycle that typically occurs every two to seven years. Warmer Pacific waters shift rainfall patterns, leaving Central America drier. NOAA declared El Niño conditions on 11 June 2026 and expects a strong event, peaking between October and December. For shipping, the key issue

Rates, ship values and trade routes have all reset since 28 February, with the change in routing looking more lasting than the risk premium. Rates and ship values have moved to a new level US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026 led Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, which previously carried approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day, or around one fifth of seaborne crude. VLCC earnings have risen from an average of approximately $58,500

Crude earnings ease in the Atlantic while Panama Canal restrictions push gas transit costs to a record. Tankers: Crude rates remain high as the Atlantic cools VLCC earnings held near $230,000 per day in the week to 28 August, while Suezmax and Aframax earnings settled at approximately $179,000 and $100,000 per day. Atlantic rates eased as vessel availability increased, while Eastern markets remained firm as Hormuz keeps Middle East tonnage scarce. Pacific ballasters are up 15% since 9 August, and

Fewer crude liftings and reduced Panama Canal transits are limiting vessel availability, while Chinese vehicle exports are increasing demand for car carriers. Tankers: Suezmax earnings rise to $238,000 per day, matching VLCCs Suezmax spot earnings rose 15% last week to approximately $238,000 per day, matching VLCC earnings. Fewer Middle East liftings are shifting more crude flows towards the Atlantic basin, where Suezmaxes are often favoured over VLCCs, as the vessels suit loading capacity at Brazilian and US ports. Suezmaxes are

Iranian exports remain reduced, with significant risk attached to transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Sanctions replace military pressure as the main instrument US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to announce new economic measures against Iran on Monday, shifting the focus from further military action towards sanctions. The measures could target Iran’s largest trading partners, including China, Turkey and India, and extend beyond the earlier focus on smaller refineries, ports and agents. Annual inflation in Iran is above 80% and