Producers are investing in alternative export routes, a measured response pointing to gradual normalisation rather than permanent disruption Investment in bypass infrastructure acceleratesMiddle East producers are moving quickly to build export capacity that avoids the Strait of Hormuz, closed in practice since late February. The UAE announced its first refined-products pipeline to Fujairah, while Iraq plans to raise crude exports through Ceyhan to around 0.8 million barrels per day by mid-August. Together with further initiatives, pipeline capacity bypassing Hormuz could

Spot rates ease from their recent peaks but stay elevated, supported by the longer routes created by the Hormuz disruption Tankers: VLCC earnings hold near $100,000/day as the crude market cools from its peak but stays historically firmThe cross-sector ClarkSea Index slipped 3% to around $36,000/day, its lowest since late February but still well above its ten-year average. VLCC earnings held near $100,000/day and Aframax rose sharply on stronger Atlantic activity, while Suezmax declined in a quiet week shaped by

The Hormuz closure has fundamentally shifted LPG flows, driving freight earnings to all-time highs A closed Gulf has pushed Asian buyers toward US supplyWith Middle East Gulf volumes largely cut off since late February, Asian LPG buyers have turned to the US Gulf Coast to cover the shortfall. A growing share of those cargoes are now travelling via the Cape of Good Hope rather than the Panama Canal, nearly doubling voyage times and removing vessels from the market for longer.

Ceasefire extension agreed in principle, but Strait of Hormuz remains shut pending formal approval Washington and Tel Aviv want different things from this warThe central challenge for a Hormuz deal is no longer limited to US-Iran talks alone. Israel’s continued escalation in Lebanon is creating recurring friction in the wider negotiation framework, giving Iran grounds to pause or reassess engagement. At the same time, the parties remain divided on scope, with Iran insisting that any settlement must also address Lebanon.

As ceasefire extension momentum builds, freight rates ease from recent highs Tanker: Earnings soften across all classes as ceasefire optimism weighs on sentimentThe crude tanker market eased across all three classes in the week ending 29 May, with VLCC earnings falling below USD 100,000 per day for the first time in 19 weeks as activity slowed during Posidonia week and US-Iran ceasefire talks advanced. The correction reflects a pullback from recent record highs rather than a fundamental shift in market

Growing EV penetration and automakers’ expanding use of China as an export base are lengthening trade routes and tightening vessel availability Record export volumes and broader trade lanes support structural demand growthChina’s passenger vehicle exports rose 61% year-on-year in the first four months of 2026 to 3.1 million units, driven by both domestic EV manufacturers and global automakers increasingly using Chinese production capacity for overseas markets. Volkswagen, BMW, Nissan, Hyundai and Stellantis are among the companies expanding China-based exports, supported

Declining inventories and limited export growth leave oil market balances exposed heading into peak demand season Supply risks build into the summer windowThe IEA has warned that global oil markets could enter a “red zone” in July and August, as peak summer fuel demand coincides with limited growth in Middle East export volumes and declining inventories. The warning reflects a tightening supply picture shaped in part by ongoing disruptions linked to the Iran conflict, with restrictions on Hormuz transit conditions

Record VLGC rates and Panama Canal congestion add new pressure points alongside a still-disrupted Strait Tankers: VLCC earnings slip below USD 100,000/day for the first time in four monthsThe crude tanker market continued to normalize this week, with VLCC spot earnings briefly falling below USD 100,000 per day for the first time since January and the broader tanker earnings composite down 12% week-on-week to approximately USD 61,000 per day. The decline reflects weaker cargo enquiry rather than any improvement in

Unprecedented inventory depletion caused by US-Iran conflict Two months into the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz, global oil inventories have been drawn down at a pace without historical precedent, with Morgan Stanley estimating a decline of approximately 4.8 million barrels per day between early March and late April, surpassing any previous peak quarterly drawdown in IEA data. Crude accounts for close to 60% of the decline, with refined products and LPG making up the remainder. Outside China, Asia-Pacific

Washington and Beijing endorse Hormuz access, but no reopening mechanism has emerged President Trump’s state visit to Beijing on 15 May produced the clearest signal yet that both Washington and Beijing want the Strait of Hormuz reopened. The White House confirmed that Trump and Xi agreed the strait “must remain open to support the free flow of energy,” with Xi offering to help broker a resolution and confirming that China would not supply military equipment to Iran. Chinese Foreign Minister