Strikes and vessel attacks drive supply risk as tanker flows stall This week’s key developments 17 March: Israel conducted strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field, with U.S. officials stating they had no prior knowledge of the operation.18 March: Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub, with QatarEnergy reporting extensive damage and calling it a “dangerous escalation.”18 March: Governments proposed a protected maritime corridor as c.20,000 seafarers remained stranded amid halted vessel movements.19 March: Energy markets moved

Tanker market corrects from extremes Tanker: Market softens due to Hormuz-closureThe crude tanker market has softened week-on-week as owners look to reposition tonnage and charterers exercise increased caution amid persistent Hormuz disruption. VLCC spot earnings fell to approximately USD 180,000 per day (down 38% from last week’s spike), with Suezmax at approximately USD 128,000 per day and Aframax at approximately USD 90,000 per day. Despite this correction, earnings remain significantly elevated relative to 2025 averages and reflect the combination of

Sources: Clarksons & Hoegh Autoliners Escalating Middle East conflict halts vessel traffic through one of the world’s key automotive trade corridors Security escalation forces effective shutdown of Hormuz transitEscalating conflict in the Middle East has sharply increased risk across global shipping markets, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following the US-Israel strikes on Iran under Operation Epic Fury on 28 February. Iran’s subsequent missile and drone attacks across the Gulf region triggered a rapid deterioration in maritime security conditions,

Sustained tensions and elevated risk expected for the time ahead The escalation of tensions between the US, Israel and Iran has significantly increased geopolitical risk in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. This waterway is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, handling roughly 20% of global oil trade and a significant share of global LPG flows. Recent attacks on vessels, threats to regional energy infrastructure, and rising military tensions have led to a sharp reduction

Hormuz disruption creates historic shock to global energy flows Tanker: Historically high rates driven by supply shockThe crude tanker market has surged following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. At one point last week, VLCC earnings reached approximately USD 480,000 per day. While rates have corrected this week, they still remain significantly above the 2008 financial crisis peak. Suezmax and Aframax markets have similarly strengthened, although future uncertainty remains. The spike reflects an unprecedented tightening of tanker supply,

Global shipping disrupted as Strait of Hormuz traffic halts Tanker: Middle East escalation drives record freight ratesThe crude tanker market surged following a rapid escalation in tensions between Israel, the US and Iran, which has severely disrupted tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian attacks on tankers and the withdrawal of war risk insurance have halted normal passage through the region, tightening available tonnage and pushing freight markets to extreme highs. VLCC earnings on key Middle East routes surged

Freight rates surge as Hormuz disruption tightens tanker supply and triggers global market volatility Freight rates surge to historic levelsTanker markets have moved into extreme territory following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Freight rates were already elevated prior to the strikes on Iran, but disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has triggered an unprecedented spike in tanker earnings. According to Baltic Exchange data cited by Lloyd’s List, the benchmark Middle East–China VLCC route surged to

Conflict in the Gulf threatens one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, increasing volatility across oil and shipping markets Hormuz disruption raises shipping riskConflict escalated in the Middle East in late February following coordinated strikes by the United States and Israel on Iranian targets, triggering retaliatory attacks on commercial vessels and maritime infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. The US-led naval coalition protecting shipping has since raised the regional threat level to critical, with multiple tankers reportedly targeted in recent

Policy reset drives near-term cargo surge, but uncertainty persists The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to strike down the Trump administration’s IEEPA tariffs has injected fresh volatility into global trade flows, with mixed implications across shipping markets. In the near term, the ruling may prompt a front-loaded surge in US-bound imports as cargo owners move ahead of potential policy changes. While the most direct impact sits in container trades, the resulting uplift in refinery runs, inventory restocking, and broader industrial activity

Hormuz headline risk persists, supporting elevated crude freight while near-term volatility remains high Crude tanker markets strengthened further during this past week, led by a sharp rally in VLCC earnings. Middle East to China spot rates climbed to their highest levels since 2020 and nearly three times higher than at the start of the year, to about USD 151k/day, supported by stronger global crude output and tightening prompt vessel availability. Market sentiment has also firmed amid rising US-Iran tensions and