Reopening signals easing dislocation, but vessel positioning and risk appetite will shape the pace of normalization Tanker: Earnings remain elevated, but VLCC rates experience near-term correction on Hormuz reopeningCrude tanker earnings have spiked to dislocation-driven highs following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with limited Middle East Gulf liftings concentrating available tonnage in a reduced number of active loading zones. As of 10 April, avg Suezmax USD 158,000 per day, and Aframax USD 211,000 per day. The 7 April

Tehran’s carve-out for “enemy-linked” vessels leaves the strait’s status deeply ambiguous for tanker operators Iran frames partial passage as diplomacy, but the conditions remain uncertain for most tradersIran’s representative to the IMO has stated that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to vessels not linked to “Iran’s enemies,” offering a narrow diplomatic signal while stopping well short of a full reopening. The comments, published via Xinhua ahead of President Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to fully open the strait or face strikes

Strait closure removes a fifth of global oil flows A crisis without modern precedent forces an emergency policy responseMore than three weeks of conflict in the Middle East have produced what the IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol describes as a disruption on par with the combined impact of the 1970s oil shocks and the 2022 European gas crisis. The Strait of Hormuz has effectively closed, severing the principal seaborne artery for Gulf crude. In response, the IEA is in active

Global shipping markets restructure as Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed Tankers: Earnings at highest levels since 2022 as Gulf flows reroute through alternative corridorsAverage VLCC earnings stood at approximately USD 227,000 per day as of March 20, reflecting a fundamental restructuring of crude trade flows, with most cargoes now loading from Yanbu, Fujairah, and Mina al Fahal as the interior of the Arabian Gulf remains effectively closed to mainstream owners. The Aframax market was the standout performer, with earnings

Fuel progress accelerates amid policy uncertainty Momentum around ammonia as a marine fuel continues to build, with several developments this week underscoring a shift from pilot-stage testing to early commercialisation. A consortium including CF Industries, Trafigura and TFG Marine has signed an agreement to develop a global low-carbon ammonia supply chain, spanning production, logistics and bunkering infrastructure. At the same time, new bunkering hubs are progressing, with successful ammonia transfer trials completed in Australia and further operations scheduled this year.

Strikes and vessel attacks drive supply risk as tanker flows stall This week’s key developments 17 March: Israel conducted strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field, with U.S. officials stating they had no prior knowledge of the operation.18 March: Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub, with QatarEnergy reporting extensive damage and calling it a “dangerous escalation.”18 March: Governments proposed a protected maritime corridor as c.20,000 seafarers remained stranded amid halted vessel movements.19 March: Energy markets moved

Tanker market corrects from extremes Tanker: Market softens due to Hormuz-closureThe crude tanker market has softened week-on-week as owners look to reposition tonnage and charterers exercise increased caution amid persistent Hormuz disruption. VLCC spot earnings fell to approximately USD 180,000 per day (down 38% from last week’s spike), with Suezmax at approximately USD 128,000 per day and Aframax at approximately USD 90,000 per day. Despite this correction, earnings remain significantly elevated relative to 2025 averages and reflect the combination of

Sources: Clarksons & Hoegh Autoliners Escalating Middle East conflict halts vessel traffic through one of the world’s key automotive trade corridors Security escalation forces effective shutdown of Hormuz transitEscalating conflict in the Middle East has sharply increased risk across global shipping markets, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following the US-Israel strikes on Iran under Operation Epic Fury on 28 February. Iran’s subsequent missile and drone attacks across the Gulf region triggered a rapid deterioration in maritime security conditions,

Sustained tensions and elevated risk expected for the time ahead The escalation of tensions between the US, Israel and Iran has significantly increased geopolitical risk in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. This waterway is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, handling roughly 20% of global oil trade and a significant share of global LPG flows. Recent attacks on vessels, threats to regional energy infrastructure, and rising military tensions have led to a sharp reduction

Hormuz disruption creates historic shock to global energy flows Tanker: Historically high rates driven by supply shockThe crude tanker market has surged following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. At one point last week, VLCC earnings reached approximately USD 480,000 per day. While rates have corrected this week, they still remain significantly above the 2008 financial crisis peak. Suezmax and Aframax markets have similarly strengthened, although future uncertainty remains. The spike reflects an unprecedented tightening of tanker supply,