Tanker and gas markets remain supported by constrained trade routes and limited prompt tonnage, while geopolitical disruption continues to reshape vessel availability

Tankers: Suezmax rates surge as Atlantic tonnage tightens

Crude tanker markets remained exceptionally strong this week, with Suezmaxes taking the lead as Atlantic availability tightened. Average Suezmax rates increased 13% to above $200,000/day, while West Africa–UKC rates surged as owners maintained pressure against a tightening position list. VLCC rates remained broadly unchanged at approximately $180,000/day, although firmer rates on selected Atlantic and Mediterranean routes indicate that strength is becoming more geographically widespread. The broader tanker market therefore remains supported not simply by cargo volumes, but by constrained vessel availability and increasingly fragmented trade patterns.

LPG/VLGC: Volatility increases but rates remain exceptionally high

VLGC spot markets were volatile rather than directionally weaker this week. Houston–Chiba rates jumped sharply early in the week as a wider arbitrage and relatively tight position list encouraged fixing, before giving back part of the increase as arbitrage economics narrowed and charterers stepped back. Rates nevertheless closed marginally higher at approximately $158,000/day. With the first two decades of September still under-fixed and only a limited number of firm vessels available, near-term fundamentals remain supportive. Longer term, fleet growth remains the principal counterweight, with the VLGC/VLAC orderbook currently equivalent to approximately 38% of the existing fleet.

PCTC: Near-term tightness remains intact despite a growing orderbook

The car carrier market continues to benefit from limited near-term capacity, although the supply picture is gradually shifting. Clarksons currently estimates the car carrier orderbook at approximately 18% of the existing fleet, with 147 vessels on order. Importantly, a significant share of this capacity is scheduled for 2027 and 2028 onwards, limiting the immediate impact on vessel availability. This continues to support the near-term market, while making the timing and absorption of new deliveries increasingly important for the longer-term outlook.

Geopolitics: Disruption expands from Hormuz to the Black Sea

Geopolitical risk remains a central driver of effective shipping supply. Energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain heavily constrained, with Saudi cargoes increasingly rerouted towards the northern Red Sea and only limited transits recorded so far in August. At the same time, disruption in the Black Sea has intensified following attacks on vessels, ports and energy infrastructure. Approximately 40% of Russian refinery capacity is now reported offline, reducing product exports while supporting crude shipments, and both Russian and Ukrainian grain flows have been disrupted. Reports of a potential truce on attacks against commercial shipping may reduce some immediate risk, but conditions remain highly fluid across several of the world’s most important shipping corridors.
Source: Clarksons Research, MB Shipbrokers