Market holds firm during week of global volatility

The tanker market has remained steady this week, with earnings staying strong despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Suezmax and scrubber-fitted VLCCs are currently trading at $40,000 per day, according to Fearnleys, reflecting sustained demand and limited fleet availability.

Looking ahead, market fundamentals suggest rates could rise further. The Atlantic peak export season is approaching, and China’s crude inventories are low, increasing the likelihood that Chinese refiners will seek crude from non-sanctioned suppliers. Fearnleys analyst Fredrik Dybwad highlights that this – combined with low fleet growth and rising Atlantic oil production – could drive rates upward in the period to come.

Compliant fleets reaping rewards of crude oil sanctions
Meanwhile, sanctions on the shadow fleet are shifting crude trade patterns in ways that benefit compliant tankers. Frontline CEO Lars H. Barstad noted that key importers such as China and India are sourcing more crude from compliant suppliers, increasing demand for conventional tonnage:

“Many crude oil demand centres like China and India are now sourcing oil from compliant suppliers in West Africa, Brazil, Guyana, the US, and even the North Sea. This marks a material shift in market behaviour.” – Lars H. Barstad, CEO, Frontline (via ShippingWatch).

With few new crude tanker deliveries expected over the next two years, fleet availability remains tight. The shift away from sanctioned oil, longer trade routes, and the need for compliant vessels continue to create favourable conditions for crude tanker earnings.