Aramco assesses that global oil stocks require 18 months to replenish

Aramco quantifies a restocking requirement that starts only once the strait reopens
Aramco’s CEO stated this week that global oil inventories would take up to 18 months to rebuild even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened immediately. More than 2.6 billion barrels have been lost to global supply chains and replacing them at an average supply rate of 2.1 million barrels per day sets that timeline. Aramco has also increased volumes through the East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, moving the loading point for a growing share of Saudi exports out of the Persian Gulf. This has increased utilization for Suezmax and Aframax vessels.

Restocking and Red Sea loadings both lengthen the average voyage
For crude tanker owners, the restocking requirement operates as a demand floor rather than a temporary spike, because the 18-month clock only begins when the strait reopens. Those barrels move by sea in addition to ordinary consumption demand, which supports utilisation across VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax segments well into the second half of the decade. The shift toward Yanbu is most directly relevant to Suezmax, since Red Sea loadings for European and Mediterranean discharge sit within that segment’s core trade, and the Houthi blockade threat announced in July keeps owners willing to serve the route compensated for the risk they carry. With limited newbuilding deliveries scheduled before 2028, the fleet cannot grow into this demand, which underpins both earnings and secondhand values through the rebuild period.

Sources: Aramco, Reuters & ShippingWatch