US sanctions on Iran causing further boost in demand

According to analysts from Clarksons and Braemar, spot rates for the largest crude tankers may surge to up to $80,000 per day as President Donald Trump’s administration tightens sanctions on Iranian oil exports. The crackdown is expected to shift more crude shipments to mainstream tanker fleets, boosting demand for compliant vessels.

Clarksons estimates that replacing Iranian exports with barrels from Middle Eastern producers could require up to 38 additional VLCC equivalents. At the same time, Hunter Group projects demand for 51 ships if 1.7 million barrels are rerouted daily.

TradeWinds prognosis: Upturn may extend as far as 2027

As mentioned in TradeWinds this week, Braemar’s Henry Curra suggests that sanctions could also drive more VLCCs to transport Atlantic crude to India, easing competition for Suezmax cargoes. If these shifts persist, the upturn could extend until 2027.
For comparison, one VLCC carries the equivalent volume of two Suezmaxes.