Security pressures have intensified across major corridors. In the Black Sea, recent drone strikes on tankers and the CPC export system have reduced loading capacity and introduced fresh uncertainty around regional oil flows. With CPC representing a significant share of Kazakhstan’s exports and a key light crude source for Europe, the disruption is likely to heighten risk premiums and prompt refiners to consider alternative supply routes in the near term.

At the same time, conditions in the Red Sea remain fragile. Although Houthi forces have paused attacks, most operators remain cautious about returning to the region. Suez Canal transits have picked up in recent weeks yet remain well below normal levels, and the industry continues to weigh the operational risks of reinstating east–west services through the corridor. Combined, these developments underscore a shipping landscape marked by elevated geopolitical risk across multiple basins.