Modest 2025 expected as US export constraints remain

Soft LPG markets may persist in 2025, in particular throughout the year’s first six months. An LPG carrier fleet growth of 3.6% (excl. VLECs) is expected to outpace the combined LPG and ammonia tonne-mile trade growth of 1.8% this year. The growth in demand is primarily limited by LPG export capacity constraints in the US – although these may begin to ease in the second half of 2025.

Long-term expectations positive – 2026 trade set to grow

2026, however, is likely to be a stronger year for LPG carrier markets, with combined LPG and ammonia tonne-mile trade projected to grow by 7.9% amid LPG export terminal expansion in the US and Middle East, while LPG carrier fleet capacity (excl. VLECs) could increase by 6.8%. Asian imports are expected to grow by 8% in 2026, though uncertainty around US-China trade tensions remains. Therefore, while the short-term outlook is muted, 2026 is expected to be a strong year.