India’s shift away from Russian crude tightens the market
New US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil are prompting Indian refiners to scale back Russian imports, tightening compliant tanker availability and lifting earnings. Floating crude stocks rose sharply in October as cargoes were rerouted, and India is now sourcing more from the US Gulf, Iraq and the UAE. These longer haul routes increase tonne miles and reduce reliance on the shadow fleet, supporting rates for mainstream VLCC and Suezmax tonnage.

Iranian flows to China remain resilient despite sanctions
Iranian crude exports to China continue to exceed 2.5 million barrels per day even after Malaysia closed its main ship-to-ship (STS) anchorage, a designated area where STS transfers take place. Transfers have merely shifted offshore, and the list of vessels linked to these trades has expanded to 170. With the expanding oil exports from Iran, despite sanctions, China can import crude from Iran instead of other regions, such as US and West-coast Africa. This will potentially result in shorter sailing distances and hence a slight negative for the tanker market.