Low stocks and supply growth set to boost tanker demand

In its latest report, the IEA forecasts global oil demand to rise by around 1 million barrels per day (mbpd) in both 2024 and 2025, reaching nearly 103 mbpd this year. The medium-term outlook for oil demand is generally positive – however, factors such as slower economic growth in China, post-pandemic demand normalization, and the ongoing shift to clean energy may pose risks to this forecast.

On the supply side, Non-OPEC+ nations, including the U.S. and Canada, are projected to add 1.5 mbpd throughout 2025. With Asia – led by China – remaining the largest oil importer, this supply growth from the Americas is expected to boost tonne-mile demand in the coming years. Meanwhile, several OPEC+ countries have postponed easing its production cuts to March 2025, citing lower-than-expected oil prices.

With oil inventories dropping to their lowest levels this year, there is growing potential for a re-stocking of supplies, especially as stocks in OECD countries remain well below the five-year average.

Source: IEA Oil market report