July sees return to 1.4 million barrels per day

OPEC+ has confirmed an additional production increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July, extending the phased rollback of its voluntary cuts. Combined with earlier hikes of 960,000 bpd from April through June, a total of 1.4 million bpd is expected to return to the market by July. This increase involves eight core producers – including Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait. While some of this supply will be absorbed locally due to seasonal crude burn in the Middle East, a portion is anticipated to add to inventories or reappear in export volumes over the coming months.

Market expected to thrive in the second half of 2025
From mid to late August, the full impact of increased production should be visible in seaborne flows. This coincides with rising output from Brazil and Guyana, where new offshore projects like Mero-4 are ramping up.
With more long-haul crude entering the market and a limited supply of modern tanker tonnage, the fundamentals for the crude tanker market in the second half of 2025 continue to improve. There is also speculation that OPEC+ may fully reverse its 2.2 million bpd voluntary cut by November.