The first week of 2025 brought limited activity to the tanker market, with only minor fluctuations in charter rates. However, growing speculation about stricter US sanctions on Iran is drawing attention. Iran’s oil exports — nearly all heading for China — have recently reached multi-year highs. If new sanctions come into effect, Chinese refiners may be compelled to turn to other Middle Eastern suppliers, shifting cargoes to compliant tankers rather than Iran’s “dark fleet.”

According to Fearnleys, a reduction of 1 million barrels per day in Iranian exports could translate into demand for nearly 30 VLCCs, significantly boosting rates. Should these sanctions materialize in the coming months, the tanker market could see a notable upturn.

Source:

Tradewinds and Fearnleys