The reopening of Iraq’s Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline has returned about 180 kb/d of crude to Mediterranean trade, with exports set to rise to 230 kb/d by early 2026. Recent liftings have mainly involved Aframaxes and Suezmaxes bound for Turkish and Greek refiners, supporting short-haul employment in the Mediterranean. While political and payment disputes between Baghdad, Ankara, and the KRG continue to pose risks, the resumed flows offer incremental support for regional tanker demand and diversify supply amid reduced Russian inflows to Turkey.

Talks are needed to restore stability
Looking ahead, the sustainability of these flows will depend on progress in revenue-sharing negotiations and regional security conditions. A stable restart could underpin consistent Aframax and Suezmax utilisation in the Mediterranean, reinforcing Turkey’s position as a key refining and export hub for regional crude trade.