Moderating fleet growth and constrained availability support a resilient rate environment

Hormuz disruption introduces friction that tightens effective vessel availability
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been the defining driver of the PCTC market in March and added a meaningful layer of operational complexity to the market. Transits have effectively fallen from 20-40 vessels per week to zero, with major carriers suspending Persian Gulf bookings, while 16 PCTCs remain trapped in the region, equivalent to around 2% of global fleet capacity. Insurance constraints, rerouting inefficiencies, and disrupted scheduling are limiting effective fleet availability, supporting utilisation across active trade lanes and reinforcing rate stability despite the evolving supply backdrop.

Peak fleet expansion reached as supply growth moderates into 2026–2027
The PCTC market is transitioning from the extreme tightness of the supercycle toward a more balanced environment, but underlying conditions remain supportive. According to Clarksons, prior to the escalation, available tonnage was already limited, rates were trending upward, and trade volumes remained robust. Current rates remain broadly in line with pre-conflict levels, with modern 6,500 CEU vessels still commanding firm earnings relative to historical averages. On the demand side, Chinese EV exports continue to provide structural support, with BYD targeting 1.3 million exports this year, up 25% year-on-year, while easing EU trade measures support continued flows.

Demand growth remains intact as trade patterns gradually adjust
Looking ahead, demand dynamics are evolving but remain supportive overall. Chinese OEMs continue to expand globally, while diversification of export routes and end markets sustains long-haul trade flows. Although some inventorybuild in Europe and gradual localisation of production may impact the car carrier market in the long term, these effects are expected to play out over time rather than disrupt near-term volumes. The near-term outlook is therefore more balanced than at peak conditions, with operational constraints and moderating fleet growth helping to anchor the market through the adjustment phase. The near-term outlook remains dependent on the duration of the conflict. Cape routing continues to absorb available tonnage as the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted. A reopening of the Strait would support a demand-driven recovery in rates as deferred OEM volumes would return to the market. Iran has already partially re-opened the Strait to limited vessels.