The US-Iran agreement marks the beginning of a normalisation process, not the end of one, and the structural changes in global crude flows will support tanker demand well beyond the reopening

The largest rerouting of crude trade in modern history enters a new phase
The US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed on 18 June represents the most credible path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began. Oil prices responded quickly, with Brent crude falling to approximately $71 per barrel by end-June, back to pre-conflict levels. But the tanker market has already been fundamentally reshaped by four months of disruption. Saudi Arabia rerouted crude exports through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, where the IEA reports loadings increased from 2 million barrels per day before the conflict to over 5 million barrels per day in early June. The UAE ramped up exports through Fujairah, bypassing the Strait via its Habshan-Fujairah pipeline. US total crude and petroleum product exports surged to a record 13.1 million barrels per day in May according to the IEA, up nearly a quarter year-on-year, while Brazilian and Venezuelan exports have also risen significantly. These alternative supply routes generate longer voyages and higher tonne-mile demand per barrel moved, which is why overall tanker sector earnings remained at approximately $66,000 per day in late June, roughly three times the long-term average, even as the Strait begins to reopen.

Restocking, not rates, is the story for the second half of 2026
The more important question for investors is what happens next. OECD government oil inventories have fallen to their lowest level since December 1990 according to the IEA, and global observed stocks have been drawn down at an average pace of 3.8 million barrels per day since the conflict began. Rebuilding those inventories will require sustained seaborne crude movements over the coming months, even as Gulf production gradually restarts. Clarksons reports that VLCC newbuilding orders for 2026 have reached 143 vessels, the highest annual total since 1973, reflecting market conviction that elevated demand conditions will persist. The IEA’s first look at 2027 balances projects a supply surge of approximately 8 million barrels per day, which will eventually weigh on tonne-mile demand, but in the near term the restocking cycle provides a structural floor under tanker earnings. The key question has shifted from how high rates can go to how long the normalisation takes, and every indication is that this process will be measured in months or even quarters, not weeks.