However, as the Iran talks proceed, the tanker market may benefit

Ongoing discussions between the US and Iran have raised the possibility of easing sanctions on Iranian crude. Regardless of the outcome, the tanker market is positioned to benefit. As noted by Alexander Saverys, CEO of Belgium’s CMB Group: “So actually, the Iran story, in our view, can only be positive for the tanker sector.”

Two favorable outcomes – in a nutshell:

If sanctions remain, oil will continue to be shipped from alternative regions like the Atlantic Basin and the Middle East, supporting long haul demand and boosting tonne miles especially for the larger crude carriers.

If sanctions are lifted, Iranian crude will return to the regular market and be carried by compliant (white fleet) tankers. This could lead to more scrapping of the old shadow fleet vessels, tightening supply and supporting rates.

Meanwhile, China’s increasing interest in acquiring older tankers – potentially to transport Iranian oil – adds additional upward pressure to the secondhand market.

With limited new tanker supply and stable vessel values, both scenarios support a strong outlook for the crude carrier segment.