US-China detente brings relief for worldwide trade

November was defined by tightening sanctions on Russia, renewed diplomatic activity between the United States and China, and continued trade flow disruptions. These developments collectively influenced global trade patterns and heightened uncertainty around crude supply heading into early 2026.

Sanctions tighten and Russian flows face growing pressure
New US measures targeting Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil disrupted Russian crude movements, prompting major buyers in India to scale back purchases and redirect demand toward the Middle East and the United States. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure temporarily halted output and increased supply risks. Although some operations later resumed, Russian barrels traded at deeper discounts as buyers adapted to the shifting sanctions environment.

Trump-Xi agreement eases near-term trade tensions
Talks between President Trump and President Xi resulted in a one-year suspension of new port fees, a temporary pause on Chinese rare earth export restrictions, and reductions in selected US tariffs. China also committed to expand agricultural imports from the United States. While limited in scope and duration, the agreement provided short term relief for global supply chains in sectors such as electronics, automotive manufacturing and clean energy.

OPEC+ and market balances
OPEC+ confirmed a small December supply increase of around 140,000 bpd with plans to pause further hikes in early 2026 amid oversupply concerns. Although global supply exceeded demand in the third quarter, markets expect sanctions and infrastructure outages to curb Russian exports, keeping price expectations somewhat supported.

Peace discussions and revenue pressure add further complexity
Washington and Kyiv continued work on a revised Ukraine peace proposal ahead of a deadline set by President Trump, raising expectations for potential future policy shifts. At the same time, Reuters reported that Russian state oil and gas revenue may fall by 35% year on year.

November underscored an environment where sanctions, diplomacy and infrastructure risks played an increasingly central role in shaping trade routes, supply balances and energy market sentiment.