US-China trade friction, Israel–Hamas ceasefire, Russian oil sanctions, and renewed Middle East energy flows shaped October developments

Geopolitical developments in October were driven by escalating US-China trade tensions, new sanctions targeting Russian oil, and an improvement in regional stability in the Middle East. Tariffs, port fees, and export restrictions from both the United States and China added volatility to global trade, while the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and the reopening of Iraq’s Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline helped stabilize conditions in key shipping lanes.

In Asia, China imposed reciprocal port fees on US-linked vessels and tightened controls on older or high-risk “shadow fleet” tankers, while the United States raised port levies and announced a 25 percent tariff on imported heavy-duty trucks. US President Donald Trump and Chinese Leader Xi Jinping held a successful meeting in South Korea, with what appears to be the framework for a trade deal that reduces US tariffs on Chinese goods, and China deferring its new export licensing regime on rare earth minerals, offering cautious optimism for shipbuilding and logistics.

Further US sanctions on Russia boost tanker utilization
Meanwhile, the US expanded sanctions on Russian oil, targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, who produce over half of Russia’s output. The move led major Chinese and Indian refiners to pause Russian crude purchases, reshaping trade flows and boosting demand for mainstream tonnage on non-Russian routes. The resulting cargo redirection is tightening supply in the Atlantic Basin and supporting tanker utilization, with rates already rising following the announcement.

In the Middle East, the Israel-Hamas ceasefire eased regional instability and is expected to lower war-risk premiums for Suez transits. The reopening of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline added up to 180,000 barrels per day of crude to Mediterranean trade, supporting Aframax and Suezmax activity and further stabilizing short-haul employment in the region.