The vote ends a pre-election pause, but the result will not change US policy on Iran immediately Why the midterms matter for the war The US-Iran war began with US and Israeli strikes on 28 February. It became a central election issue because it pushed up fuel prices for American voters: US petrol prices have risen by nearly 50% since the war began. Before the vote, President Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the 3 November elections

Chinese yards must nearly double annual output by 2028, and financiers are urging caution on new orders. Chinese yards must nearly double output to meet a record delivery scheduleThe global newbuilding orderbook reached a record 226 million cgt at the end of October, above the previous peak in September 2008, according to Clarksons Research. Chinese yards hold 68% of this orderbook. According to BIMCO, they also won 74% of new contracting in the 12 months to September. At the Marine

Charter rates in all three segments remain far above 2025 levels, and the next US step on Iran sets the risk outlook. Tankers: Suezmax and Aframax earnings remain exceptionally strong despite a softer weekSuezmax and Aframax spot earnings eased last week because Atlantic activity slowed, but Suezmax earnings still averaged above USD 560,000 per day. One-year timecharter rates were about USD 170,000 per day for Suezmax and above USD 100,000 for Aframax. Five-year-old Suezmax values were USD 145 million, compared

Exports support car carrier demand today, while production closer to buyers could reshape future trade flows. Strong sales support the current marketChinese-brand car sales in Europe rose 104% year-over-year in September, reaching a record 14.5% market share, according to preliminary Dataforce figures. Sales supplied from China support long-distance shipping demand, although brand market share alone does not measure imports. Six- to twelve-month timecharter assessments for 6,500 CEU car carriers remain around USD 95,000 per day, nearly twice the 2025 average.

Coated LR2s are exposed from both crude and clean markets, and both are currently tight. The question for investors is how long this can last. An LR2 is an Aframax-size tanker with coated cargo tanks, so it can carry either crude or clean products such as diesel and jet fuel. Owners are able to switch to whichever market pays more (though need thorough cleaning when going from dirty to clean). Last week, LR2 earnings were around USD 200,000 per day

Record LR2 earnings and stronger Aframax markets contrast with softer Suezmax and VLGC rates, while Chinese car sales support demand for vehicle transport. Tankers: Aframax earnings rise as LR2 benchmark reaches a recordLast week, average earnings were around USD 667,000 per day for Suezmax and USD 359,000 per day for Aframax. The 2025 averages were around USD 58,000 and USD 46,000 per day. Two forces support earnings. First, shuttle operations and ship-to-ship transfers in the Middle East absorb a large

Pipelines move Gulf crude to new loading ports rather than to buyers, and refilling depleted oil stocks should absorb the extra barrels. Exports exceed pre-war levels as pipelines change where tankers load Middle East oil exports averaged more than 24 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week ending 18 October, above the pre-war 23.3 million, according to Kpler, with pipelines that bypass Hormuz carrying a growing share. These pipelines do not deliver crude to buyers; they carry it to

Historical trends suggest further upside in suezmax/crude tanker values, while elevated period rates support asset prices and future earnings. The recent surge in tanker earnings has pushed crude tanker asset values to new highs. However, historical data suggests further upside may remain, as asset prices often follow improvements in earnings with a lag. Since 2020, there have been ten instances where one-year Suezmax timecharter rates increased by more than 10% within a month. In nine cases, vessel values were higher

Hormuz attacks and tight vessel supply keep charterers focused on securing ships for longer. Tankers: Suezmax and Aframax values rise further as spot earnings ease Average tanker earnings eased 4% week-on-week to about $295,000/day, just below recent records. Gulf exports and ship-to-ship transfer delays continue to absorb vessel capacity. One-year timecharter rates stand at about $180,000/day for Suezmaxes and $100,000/day for Aframaxes, against 2025 averages below $40,000/day. Five-year-old values reached about $145 million for Suezmaxes and $95 million for Aframaxes,