Earnings hold firm as the strait remains effectively closed
Crude tanker markets softened modestly week-on-week but remain at historically elevated levels across all segments, with 2026 year-to-date averages running at multiples of 2025 levels. The Strait of Hormuz is now in its eighth week of effective closure, with transits averaging around 10 per day versus roughly 125 pre-conflict and down 93% in tonnage terms. Brent has responded, trading above USD 106 per barrel, up approximately 45% since the conflict began, with speculation that the market still underprices the scale and duration of disruption, including an estimated one billion barrels of supply effectively lost due to delayed restarts and supply chain realignment.

Fleet repositioning and inventory depletion point to sustained support
Global inventories have drawn at approximately 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the steepest rate since 2017. Record shares of crude tanker tonnage have repositioned into the Atlantic, over 20 VLCCs are queuing at Yanbu, and Suezmax sentiment has firmed on the back of stronger Atlantic enquiry and Black Sea activity. Aframax markets have seen a week of stabilisation following earlier volatility. This is now visible in secondhand values, with five-year-old prices up across all three crude segments over the past three months. Even upon a Hormuz reopening, depleted inventories and precautionary restocking point to continued rate support through mid-year.