Euro area annual inflation rose to 3.0% in April 2026, up from 2.6% in March, driven primarily by elevated energy prices stemming from the ongoing Hormuz closure. Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since December 2022, while GDP growth slowed to 0.8% year-on-year in Q1 2026, prompting analysts to warn of mounting stagflationary pressure. The ECB acknowledged the conflict as a key inflationary driver while signalling it remains well positioned to navigate the uncertainty.

For shipping, the picture is nuanced. Softer European consumer sentiment and weakening import demand represent a near-term headwind for container shipping, which does not affect EMF. However, elevated fuel prices are simultaneously accelerating the structural shift toward electric vehicles, supporting PCTC cargo demand on outbound Asian export routes. On the tanker side, Hormuz-driven trade flow dislocations continue to dominate near-term freight dynamics, with any normalisation of energy prices likely to provide relief to both European consumers and shipping demand in the medium term.