Tankers: Rates ease as ceasefire hopes briefly emerge but disruption remains
The crude tanker market experienced a volatile week as US-Iran ceasefire talks briefly resumed before collapsing, prompting ships to move toward Dubai and away from Hormuz. Brent fell 9% week-on-week to USD 100.3 per barrel on ceasefire optimism, applying downward pressure on freight sentiment. Spot rates reflected the uncertainty, with Suezmax spot rates declining to USD ~121,000 per day and Aframax declining to USD ~ 88,000 per day. However, while the current rates is a decline from last week, it still represents strong levels.

LPG/VLGC: Earnings reach all-time highs as Atlantic basin absorbs Asian demand
The VLGC market has entered unprecedented territory. Spot earnings on the US Gulf-East benchmark reached approximately USD 170,000 per day in early May, the highest level ever recorded, as US LPG exports surged 20% month-on-month to a record 7 million tonnes in April. Panama Canal congestion has worsened materially, with average waiting times more than doubling and an estimated 50% of US-Asia cargoes now routing via the Cape of Good Hope, absorbing significant vessel capacity and keeping effective supply extremely tight.

PCTC: Demand broadens as High and Heavy emerges alongside EV growth
Car carrier rates held at USD 55,000 per day for modern Panamax tonnage, with the demand picture broadening beyond passenger vehicles. Deep-sea construction equipment shipments from Asia grew 31% year-on-year in Q1, adding a resilient secondary cargo layer to already strong Chinese EV and hybrid export volumes. Net fleet growth is projected to decelerate sharply toward the end of the decade, pointing to a structurally supported rate environment through the medium term.

Geopolitics: Ceasefire hopes fade as Hormuz disruption enters new phase
Brent fell sharply to USD 100.3 per barrel this week as brief ceasefire optimism emerged, before US-Iran talks collapsed and a South Korean vessel was damaged near Fujairah. Hormuz transits remain deeply suppressed at an average of just 9 vessels per day in May, down from 13 in April and against a pre-conflict norm of 125. While a small number of Qatari-linked LNG carriers have transited the Strait for the first time in two months, outbound crude flows remain negligible at an estimated 6 million barrels per week versus a typical 105 million barrels. Saudi Aramco is expanding export capacity at Yanbu in response, though Red Sea alternatives remain insufficient to fully offset lost Gulf volumes. A durable resolution appears no closer.