Traffic rebounded sharply after the June 18 MOU, but Iran’s re-declared closure on June 20 A partial reopening, not a return to normalWhen the US-Iran memorandum of understanding was signed on June 17, shipping activity recovered quickly: Kpler recorded 93 transits over the June 19-21 weekend, up from 32 the prior weekend, with US CENTCOM reporting 55 ships on June 20 carrying more than 17 million barrels, a single-day record. However, Iran’s military declared the strait closed again on June

The agreement is signed, but the Strait remains physically constrained while mine-clearance proceeds Tankers: VLCC rates jump 87% as owners hold back ahead of Gulf cargo flowsVLCC earnings rose 87% to approximately $195,000/day after the US-Iran agreement on 18 June 2026 raised expectations of restored Middle East oil flows. Owners pulled back from fixing, anticipating further rate gains, while charterers struggled to agree on terms. Suezmax markets also strengthened, led by active demand in West Africa and the Americas. If

Despite the deal signing, energy markets remain skeptical of how fast normal flows can resume Deal would end blockades on both Hormuz and Iranian shipping The US and Iran signed a nuclear agreement on June 18, ending two maritime blockades simultaneously: Tehran’s Strait of Hormuz closure and Washington’s sanctions-backed restriction on Iranian shipping and oil exports. The agreement grants Iran immediate sanctions waivers for oil sales resumption, with broader financial commitments and nuclear-program negotiations deferred to a 60-day window. Speaking

With Hormuz pushing US energy flows toward Asia, a second chokepoint is now reinforcing the strong freight environment Rising US energy flows are pushing Panama toward full capacityThe Hormuz disruption has redirected large volumes of US oil and gas toward Asia, much of it through the Panama Canal, which carries more than a fifth of global LPG. Transits have run near full capacity at about 40 vessels per day since March, with waiting times rising to around 50 hours and

PCTC rates firm as Chinese EV exports surge Tankers: Owners gain the upper hand as sentiment firms across the boardVLCC owners closed the week with real optimism, as a thinning Atlantic position list gave them more control over rates. Rates on key Middle East to Asia routes firmed further, a sign that owners are holding their ground even as talk of a resolution to the Hormuz situation circulates. Suezmax saw a genuinely busy week of enquiry out of West Africa,

Rising barrels from the Americas are increasingly moving long-haul to Asia, supporting tonne-mile demand across crude segments Record exports from the Americas meet strong Asian buyingUS crude, also known as dirty, oil exports by tanker have reached a new record high, according to BIMCO, as rising shipments from the US and Venezuela combine with strong Asian demand. The trend aligns with Clarksons data showing US crude exports rising around 13% in 2026 to roughly 4.4 million barrels per day, alongside

Producers are investing in alternative export routes, a measured response pointing to gradual normalisation rather than permanent disruption Investment in bypass infrastructure acceleratesMiddle East producers are moving quickly to build export capacity that avoids the Strait of Hormuz, closed in practice since late February. The UAE announced its first refined-products pipeline to Fujairah, while Iraq plans to raise crude exports through Ceyhan to around 0.8 million barrels per day by mid-August. Together with further initiatives, pipeline capacity bypassing Hormuz could

Spot rates ease from their recent peaks but stay elevated, supported by the longer routes created by the Hormuz disruption Tankers: VLCC earnings hold near $100,000/day as the crude market cools from its peak but stays historically firmThe cross-sector ClarkSea Index slipped 3% to around $36,000/day, its lowest since late February but still well above its ten-year average. VLCC earnings held near $100,000/day and Aframax rose sharply on stronger Atlantic activity, while Suezmax declined in a quiet week shaped by

The Hormuz closure has fundamentally shifted LPG flows, driving freight earnings to all-time highs A closed Gulf has pushed Asian buyers toward US supplyWith Middle East Gulf volumes largely cut off since late February, Asian LPG buyers have turned to the US Gulf Coast to cover the shortfall. A growing share of those cargoes are now travelling via the Cape of Good Hope rather than the Panama Canal, nearly doubling voyage times and removing vessels from the market for longer.

Ceasefire extension agreed in principle, but Strait of Hormuz remains shut pending formal approval Washington and Tel Aviv want different things from this warThe central challenge for a Hormuz deal is no longer limited to US-Iran talks alone. Israel’s continued escalation in Lebanon is creating recurring friction in the wider negotiation framework, giving Iran grounds to pause or reassess engagement. At the same time, the parties remain divided on scope, with Iran insisting that any settlement must also address Lebanon.