Markets remain firm over New Year as focus turns towards Venezuela
Tankers: Rates softened across the board
Tanker markets softened further this week, with the ClarkSea Index easing for a fifth consecutive week to $28,090 per day. VLCC earnings declined materially from late-2025 highs, with fleet-weighted averages falling to around $44,000 per day amid limited activity and continued charterer control. Suezmax markets also softened on reduced enquiry, particularly in the Black Sea and West Africa, while Aframax markets were mixed, with firmer cross-UKC rates offset by weaker Mediterranean conditions. Despite the near-term pullback, tanker earnings remain structurally strong and comfortably above long-term averages. The market is expected to bounce back during the next month, as activity picks up.
LPG / VLGC: Spot earnings strengthened on tighter availability
The VLGC market strengthened this week, supported by active Middle East fixing and a lack of prompt tonnage in the Atlantic Basin. Earnings on the benchmark Ras Tanura-Chiba route rose to approximately $68,000 per day, the highest level since August, with elevated Panama Canal auction costs continuing to encourage longer Cape routings. Forward fixing in the US remained firm, contributing to a balanced tonnage list moving into mid-January and underpinning constructive near-term sentiment in the LPG segment.
PCTC: Rates held steady amid limited spot activity
PCTC markets remained stable over the holiday period, with timecharter rates holding broadly flat following the exceptional strength seen earlier in the cycle. While spot activity was limited, underlying fundamentals remain supportive, with tight vessel availability, a relatively low orderbook, and resilient global vehicle trade flows providing a firm backdrop into early 2026. Charterer interest in period coverage remains selective but persistent, supporting rate stability despite seasonal quiet.
Geopolitical: Venezuela remains in focus, with limited immediate market impact
Geopolitical developments continued to influence shipping markets, with US sanctions pressure reportedly halving Venezuelan oil exports in December to around 0.5 million barrels per day (down from 2 million barrels p.d. recorded in 2016), tightening regional crude supply and adding complexity to Atlantic Basin tanker trade flows. Venezuela also remains in focus following the reported US attack and capture of President Maduro, with oil emerging as a central point of discussion, though immediate impacts on the tanker and broader oil market have yet to materialise. At the same time, elevated Panama Canal costs and ongoing regional security risks continue to affect routing decisions, tonne-mile demand, and vessel deployment across energy and gas shipping markets as the year begins.
Sources: Clarksons & Reuters