Venezuela has returned to focus as oil production and exports softened late last year and vessel seizures added fresh uncertainty to trade flows. Most crude continues to move on restricted tonnage, limiting transparency and muting the immediate impact on mainstream tanker demand. 

For now, the effect on VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax markets has been limited, as compliant fleets remain largely insulated from Venezuelan volume declines. The bigger question is whether Venezuelan barrels re-enter the mainstream market, which is expected to be a positive for the tanker market. 

Relaxed sanctions are a potential tanker market game-changer
A return to compliant trade would likely revive long-haul VLCC shipments to Asia, alongside Aframax flows into the United States and Suezmax cargoes to Europe. Past episodes of eased sanctions showed that even modest volumes can generate disproportionate tanker demand due to chronic loading delays and elevated tonne-mile intensity. 

Conversely, further disruption to Venezuelan exports would tighten global oil balances and remove Venezuela-to-East flows. Replacement barrels sourced from the mainstream market would be supportive for tanker demand, while substitution via restricted trades would be more neutral. 

In the near term, Venezuela’s impact remains limited. Over time, however, the direction of travel, reintegration or disruption, could materially influence tanker demand through trade reallocation rather than headline volumes.