Vehicle exports are growing faster than the fleet, while limited return cargoes are adding to the capacity squeeze.

Export growth continues to support earnings

China exported 6.14 million vehicles in the first seven months of 2026, up 67% year-on-year, with monthly volumes above one million units in June and July. Charter rates have responded, with a 6,500 ceu car carrier holding at approximately $85,000 per day in early September, compared with an average of around $49,000 per day in 2025. With very few new vessels scheduled for delivery before 2028, strong export growth is continuing to absorb available capacity.

Limited return cargoes add to the squeeze

The capacity pressure is reinforced by the imbalance between outbound and return cargoes. China imported just 125 battery electric passenger cars in July, down 99% from the 2023 peak, leaving more car carriers returning to Asia without a full cargo. This means that more fleet capacity is required to move each vehicle exported from China. Despite an order book equal to approximately 20% of the existing fleet, the limited number of new deliveries and continued export growth are supporting earnings. Unlike tankers, the PCTC market is also less exposed to current Middle East-related disruption, leaving its performance primarily driven by trade growth and fleet supply.

Sources: Automotive News Europe, Clarksons Research, CPCA, Financial Times, MarkLines, MOFCOM & Reuters