Historical trends suggest further upside in suezmax/crude tanker values, while elevated period rates support asset prices and future earnings.
The recent surge in tanker earnings has pushed crude tanker asset values to new highs. However, historical data suggests further upside may remain, as asset prices often follow improvements in earnings with a lag.
Since 2020, there have been ten instances where one-year Suezmax timecharter rates increased by more than 10% within a month. In nine cases, vessel values were higher six months later, increasing by approximately 8% on average. The only exception was during the COVID-19 pandemic, when a temporary spike in floating storage demand was followed by a sharp correction.
Applying this pattern to the USD 150 million valuation on 9 October suggests potential values of USD 157–173 million over the following three to six months, assuming earnings remain elevated. Clarksons has already raised its valuation to USD 170 million as of 16 October, indicating that much of the historical upside has materialised. Further appreciation will likely depend on sustained strength in period charter rates.
Period charters provide support for asset values
A similar trend is evident in the Aframax segment, where five-year timecharter rates are 58% above their 2025 average, while five-year-old vessel values have increased from approximately USD 68 million to USD 95 million this year.
For shipowners, elevated period rates offer an opportunity to secure attractive earnings beyond the current market strength. Five-year Suezmax rates are now approximately 75% above their 2025 average, allowing owners to lock in substantial future cash flows.
In our view, sustained strength in period charter rates is key to supporting current asset valuations. Longer-term charter commitments provide greater earnings visibility and could justify further appreciation, while reducing exposure to a potential market correction.
Sources: Clarksons & EMF
