Shipping markets are increasingly pricing route security rather than cargo volumes, as operators adapt faster than supply chains are disrupted

Tankers: Crude earnings extend gains as trade disruptions, not cargo volumes, sets the market

The crude tanker market is increasingly priced on where cargoes can safely load and how far they must sail, rather than on how much oil moves. Saudi barrels displaced from the Persian Gulf are leaving through Yanbu on the Red Sea, and owners willing to transit Bab el Mandeb continue to earn roughly twice what comparable Atlantic voyages earn. The premium reflects compensation for security risk rather than tonnage scarcity. Reported earnings of approximately $173,000/day reflect a market clearing on relatively few fixtures, while secondhand values, roughly 30% higher than a year ago, suggest buyers expect today’s disruption to last longer than initially anticipated. Whether these elevated earnings persist will depend on whether longer voyage patterns become structural or fade as regional security improves.

LPG/VLGC: Chartering remains constrained by Panama uncertainty

VLGC rates remain firm; however, fixing has declined due to limited route access rather than weakening cargo demand. In the East, the US-Iran conflict has largely halted Persian Gulf fixing, while in the West uncertainty around Panama Canal slot auctions continues to make delivered cargo economics difficult to price. Owners remain confident, however, with tight end-August availability and firmer period rates indicating expectations that current disruption will persist beyond the summer. Houston to Chiba earnings eased to approximately $155,000/day, well above normal cycle levels, while the medium-term focus remains an orderbook equal to roughly 35% of the existing VLGC fleet, with an increasing share of ammonia-capable vessels.

PCTC: Tight supply continues to support forward rates

The car carrier market remains exceptionally tight, with almost no prompt tonnage available. Charterers are covering requirements further forward, pushing six-to-twelve-month rates for a 6,500 ceu vessel to approximately $80,000/day, around 60% above the 2025 average. Although owners continue ordering aggressively, little new capacity arrives before 2028, leaving current market tightness largely protected over the next two years. Red Sea diversions continue to lengthen voyages and reduce effective capacity, while the longer-term risk remains the large orderbook scheduled for delivery from 2028 onward.

Geopolitics: Traditional shipping indicators no longer tell the whole story

Part of the MEG region’s crude export flow no longer passes through the Strait of Hormuz, as Saudi barrels routed to Yanbu reach the market via the Red Sea. Increasing use of ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman means fewer laden tankers are passing through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, security risks have shifted toward the Black Sea, where repeated attacks have disrupted operations and increased war risk costs. As owners avoid higher-risk regions, freight markets continue to reward those willing to operate there, reinforcing the premium currently being paid for security exposure.

Source: Clarksons Research