Implications for the Tanker Market

In July 2025, the European Union agreed on its 18th sanctions package against Russia, aimed at further weakening Moscow’s ability to finance its war in Ukraine. A key element of the package is a revised oil price cap mechanism. Replacing the earlier fixed $60 per barrel ceiling set by the G7 in December 2022, the EU will now implement a moving price cap set at 15% below the average market price of Russian crude. The intention is to better align the cap with market conditions while continuing to restrict Russian oil revenues without fully removing its exports from global supply chains.

This updated cap is part of broader efforts to close loopholes in enforcement and increase pressure on the shadow fleet.

Impact on the Tanker Market
For the tanker segment, particularly vessels involved in the transport of Russian crude and refined products, the new measures present both compliance risks and market opportunities. Tighter enforcement may raise operational costs and limit access to EU ports for non-compliant vessels, especially those linked to opaque ownership or sanctioned cargoes.

However, the growing shadow fleet, combined with the longer rerouted trade routes, has contributed to tightening overall supply of modern, compliant tanker tonnage. This dynamic supports stronger freight rates and creates favourable conditions for owners of modern, transparent, and regulation-compliant tonnage.

EMF Perspective
EMF’s tanker investments, managed in partnership with Atlas Maritime, are well-positioned to benefit from these shifting market dynamics. As regulatory scrutiny increases, compliant vessels are likely to remain in high demand. However, the inability to effectively crack down on the shadow fleet has made this market dynamic less visible and less supportive for the tanker market than expected, as the shadow fleet continues to operate despite recent measures from regulatory bodies.