Exports support car carrier demand today, while production closer to buyers could reshape future trade flows.

Strong sales support the current market
Chinese-brand car sales in Europe rose 104% year-over-year in September, reaching a record 14.5% market share, according to preliminary Dataforce figures. Sales supplied from China support long-distance shipping demand, although brand market share alone does not measure imports. Six- to twelve-month timecharter assessments for 6,500 CEU car carriers remain around USD 95,000 per day, nearly twice the 2025 average.

More cars will be built closer to customers
Chinese carmakers are expanding European production. BYD has scheduled the start of assembly in Hungary for the fourth quarter of 2026, while Chery-branded production in Barcelona is expected in late 2026 or early 2027. Leapmotor also plans production at a Stellantis plant in Spain. These projects could replace some finished-car imports from China, reducing the shipping required to serve European buyers. However, the effect depends on how quickly factories increase output and whether local production replaces imports or supports additional sales.

The risk builds as new ships arrive
The effect is likely to emerge gradually. BYD’s Hungarian production schedule, for example, is around a year later than originally planned, illustrating the delays involved in establishing overseas factories. Localisation could therefore become a greater constraint on long-haul demand growth over time, rather than cause an immediate decline. This coincides with further fleet expansion: the car carrier orderbook equals around 23% of existing fleet capacity, with approximately 62% scheduled for delivery in 2028 or later. The key question is whether growth in seaborne vehicle trade will absorb those deliveries as more cars are built closer to their buyers.

Sources: Clarksons, Gasgoo & Reuters