– Geopolitics rewrites trade flows

Policy shifts, trade tensions, and security risks
September underlined how geopolitics continues to reshape global shipping. Washington linked deeper sanctions on Russia to Europe’s energy dependence, while China pushed back against US tariff threats. These developments reinforce the trend of crude and product flows shifting eastward. A vessel attack near Aden also highlighted the persistent security risks in the Red Sea, with rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope likely to remain a feature that extends voyage distances and raises costs.

Tariffs and protectionism add volatility
In parallel, trade barriers are adding new uncertainty. UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) warned of mounting volatility from tariffs and protectionist measures, with Mexico’s proposed 50 percent duty on Chinese vehicles underscoring how politics is increasingly tied to shipping demand. At the same time, monetary policy provided a counterbalance, as the US Federal Reserve’s rate cut improved financing conditions and supported asset values.

Impact: Fragmented but resilient trade
Geopolitical events are already reshaping trade flows, with sanctions, tariffs, and security risks driving a more fragmented and regionalised pattern of shipping. Routes that remain shaped by efficiency are now increasingly influenced by politics, which may lead to longer distances and rising costs. Yet this shift also supports tonne-mile demand, keeping freight activity resilient despite heightened volatility.