Recent forecasts from OPEC+ and Trafigura suggest India’s oil demand growth will outpace China’s as early as in 2025, supported by industrialisation, urbanisation, and rising vehicle ownership. In the near term, this shift is likely to increase long-haul crude shipments from the US, Middle East, and West Africa to India, sustaining tonne-mile demand for tankers and adding resilience to freight rates.

Long-term outlook: India anchors global energy trade
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India is expected to account for more than one-third of global oil demand growth through 2030, adding nearly 1.2 million barrels per day in consumption. With China’s demand set to plateau within the next 3–5 years, this structural shift positions India as the central driver of global energy trade, reinforcing South Asia’s growing role in shaping tanker utilisation and long-term market stability.